Nuclear arms control collapses as treaties fail and tensions escalate globally
Global efforts to control nuclear weapons face growing challenges as key agreements weaken and tensions rise. The 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has failed to eliminate existing arsenals, while new threats emerge from nations outside its framework. Recent conflicts and expired treaties have further strained oversight, leaving critical gaps in monitoring. The 2023 NPT review conference collapsed without a final declaration after disputes over Iran’s nuclear activities and U.S. military actions. Since then, inspections in Iran have halted, though the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) continues monitoring nearly all other countries. Remote tools like satellite imagery now play a larger role, but they offer limited oversight compared to on-site checks.
In June 2025, U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian nuclear sites, damaging key facilities. Yet these attacks did not fully dismantle Iran’s programme, which now holds enough enriched uranium for a weapon. Meanwhile, China is rapidly expanding its arsenal, estimated at 600 warheads, while the U.S. and Russia—holding around 3,700 and 4,400 respectively—modernise their stockpiles alongside France and the UK. The New START treaty, which capped U.S. and Russian warheads, expired in February 2023 without renewal. Beyond these nations, Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea remain outside the NPT’s rules, each possessing nuclear arms. Despite decades of diplomacy, no nuclear-armed state has fully disarmed under the treaty’s terms.
The breakdown of treaties and the halt of inspections in Iran leave fewer safeguards against nuclear proliferation. With major powers upgrading arsenals and non-NPT states retaining weapons, the risk of unchecked expansion grows. Current monitoring relies more on remote methods, but these cannot replace direct verification.
