Mexico's Olmeca refinery struggles with fourth straight month of declining production
Mexico’s Olmeca refinery in Dos Bocas is facing ongoing challenges as production falls for the fourth month in a row. The facility, launched in June 2024 to cut reliance on imported fuels, has struggled with operational setbacks and declining output.
The refinery began operations with a target capacity of 340,000 barrels per day. Yet, by April, it processed just 147,000 barrels—40% of its intended level and a 44% drop since December. This marks the lowest output since August.
Since February, the site has seen repeated incidents, including fires, spills, and gas leaks. These disruptions have contributed to the steady decline in production. Industry analyst Arturo Carranza links the refinery’s unstable performance to political pressure for rapid expansion. Meanwhile, Mexico’s broader refining network remains fragile. A single refinery failure could trigger major fuel shortages. In April, Pemex imported 351,000 barrels per day of gasoline and diesel—the highest volume since December 2024. On the export side, Mexico’s crude blend has outperformed West Texas Intermediate (WTI). Pemex sold oil at $92.72 per barrel on Friday, a 72.9% rise since the start of the year. WTI, in comparison, closed at $87.36 per barrel.
The Olmeca refinery’s struggles highlight persistent issues in Mexico’s fuel production. With imports rising and domestic refining capacity under strain, the country’s energy security faces further uncertainty. The facility’s current output remains far below its intended level, raising concerns about future stability.
