Campeche and Tabasco face years of economic decline after 2025 crashes
Mexico’s national economy is set for modest growth over the next two years, with expansions of 1.3% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. But two key states, Campeche and Tabasco, face a far bleaker outlook after sharp declines in 2025. Together, their economies were valued at 1.2 trillion pesos last year—yet both now struggle to recover. Campeche’s economy once thrived, growing by 7.4% in 2023 thanks to the Maya Train infrastructure project. But fortunes reversed in 2025, when its GDP plunged by 13.6%. The downturn will deepen in 2026, with a further contraction of 3.4%, followed by another 2.1% decline in 2027.
Tabasco has also suffered, with its GDP shrinking by 5% in 2025. A slight rebound of 0.1% is forecast for 2026, barely enough to offset losses. Growth may finally reach 2% in 2027, but this remains far below earlier performance. The two states now hold the weakest economic prospects in Mexico for 2026, lagging well behind the national average.
While Mexico’s overall economy inches forward, Campeche and Tabasco continue to lose ground. Campeche’s GDP will shrink for three straight years, and Tabasco’s recovery stays sluggish. Both states must now contend with prolonged stagnation after their 2025 downturns.
