Expected Above-Average Rainfall in India During the Upcoming Monsoon Season
India Braces for Above-Normal Monsoon Rainfall in 2025
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the Southwest monsoon rainfall across India during June to September 2025 will likely be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA), marking a slight increase from the 105% forecast in the April update.
According to the IMD, above-normal rainfall is most likely to occur over India as a whole during the forthcoming monsoon season. However, the forecast suggests below-normal rainfall for Northeast India and some parts of Northwest India. In contrast, Central India and South Peninsular India are projected to receive more rain than the LPA.
Region-wise, the IMD predicts the following rainfall distribution:
- Central India and South Peninsular India: Above-normal rainfall (>106% of LPA)
- Northwest India: Normal rainfall (92-108% of LPA)
- Northeast India: Below-normal rainfall (<94% of LPA)
For the month of June 2025, the IMD anticipates above-normal rainfall across most of the country, with the exception of some southern parts of Peninsular India, parts of Northwest and Northeast India, which are expected to experience below-normal rainfall.
The IMD will release the July rainfall forecast in late June. Since March, the country as a whole has seen 28.3% higher rainfall, totaling 155 mm. Northwest India, East, and Northeast India have received deficient rainfall, while Central India and South Peninsular India have observed excess rainfall.
Above-normal rainfall carries benefits for agriculture and water resources, but it also poses risks such as flooding, transportation disruptions, public health concerns, and harm to ecosystems.
It is worth noting that the Southwest monsoon reached Kerala on May 24, a week earlier than usual, marking its earliest arrival on the Indian mainland since 2009. Monsoons serve as significant indicators for analysts inferring the economic outlook of the country's manufacturing and agricultural sectors.
In terms of monsoon advancement, the IMD forecasts the further advance of the Southwest Monsoon into various regions in the upcoming 2-3 days. The Meteorological Department has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala since 2005, with the exception of 2015.
Since 2022, the monsoon has onset early on two occasions. In 2022 and 2024, the monsoon onset was on May 29 and May 30, respectively. During the past five years (2020-2024), the IMD's operational forecasts of the monsoon onset date over Kerala have been accurate, with the exception of 2020. In 2024, India received above-normal monsoon rains, continuing a four-year trend that peaked in 2024 with rainfall at around 108% of the LPA.
The above-normal monsoon rains in 2025 may help farmers sow more crops this Kharif season, benefiting the overall agriculture sector, which remains a primary source of livelihood for millions of Indians. Agriculture, particularly the Kharif season, traditionally relies heavily on monsoon rainfall.
The predicted above-normal monsoon rainfall in 2025 may contribute to the growth of environmental-science fields, such as understanding the impacts of weather patterns on agriculture and ecosystems in India. Additionally, the anticipated excess rainfall could lead to improvement in water resources for agricultural activities, making it a boon for the field of science related to agriculture and weather.
