Anticipated Above-Average Rainfall during 2025 Southwest Monsoon over India, According to IMD Forecast
India braces for an above-normal June-September southwest monsoon, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The forecast, updated from an April prediction, foresees rainfall that is 106% of the long-period average (LPA) of 870 mm. This suggests an above-normal monsoon season that could significantly benefit rain-fed agriculture.
The core monsoon zone, crucial for the country's agriculture, is expected to receive 106% of the LPA as well, a clear indication of an ample monsoon. This positive forecast is particularly advantageous for the kharif crops that rely heavily on monsoon rains.
IMD Director-General, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, stated during a press conference in New Delhi that the second-stage Long-Range Forecast (LRF) indicates above-normal rainfall for the primary monsoon area, which includes central and peninsular India.
The significance of an above-normal monsoon lies in its potential to boost agricultural growth, particularly for rain-fed crops, such as rice, pulses, cotton, and sugarcane, forming the backbone of India's food production. Early monsoon rains also enable timely sowing of Kharif crops, crucial for the sowing calendar and subsequent growth.
Moreover, a strong monsoon can sustain rural economic momentum, benefiting small and marginal farmers. While these positive aspects are encouraging, excessive rainfall can lead to crop damage, disrupt supply chains, and contribute to price instability.
The monsoon's early onset, eight days ahead of schedule, and swift progression across Kerala, Maharashtra, the northeast, Bay of Bengal, and Arabian Sea, are attributable to favorable large-scale climate patterns. These include the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
The IMD has also provided finer rainfall predictions at the meteorological subdivision scale for the first time. The south peninsular and central India regions are projected to experience excess rainfall, while northwest India will witness normal rainfall. Northeast India, Ladakh, Jammu & Kashmir will experience deficient rainfall.
The IMD also predicts more than normal rainfall in June and fewer heatwave days during the same month. This means a reduction in prolonged heat events, particularly in northwest India.
These predictions underscore the complex interplay of weather patterns during India's monsoon season and their potential impact on agricultural output, rural economies, and overall food security.
The above-normal monsoon forecast for the primary monsoon area, based on the IMD's second-stage Long-Range Forecast, is significantly advantageous not just for agricultural growth, but specifically for rain-fed crops such as rice, pulses, cotton, and sugarcane. The predicted excess rainfall in the south peninsular and central India regions may boost environmental-science studies focusing on weather patterns and their effects on agriculture.
