Russian ruble surges after government cuts currency purchase plans
The Russian ruble has strengthened sharply after the government announced lower-than-expected currency purchases. The exchange rate moved back to 74.5–74.9 rubles per dollar, recovering from recent declines. Analysts had predicted much higher purchase volumes, but the actual figures came in well below expectations.
The Ministry of Finance (Minfin) will buy 110.3 billion rubles’ worth of foreign currency between May 8 and June 4. Daily transactions will amount to 5.8 billion rubles, far less than the 300–500 billion rubles some analysts had forecast. This reduced purchase volume triggered a sudden appreciation of the ruble by over 1%.
In contrast, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) will sell 4.62 billion rubles’ worth of currency each day. The ruble’s recovery follows a period of volatility, with rates recently nearing 75.5–76 rubles per dollar before stabilising. Additional non-oil and gas revenues in April reached 21 billion rubles, a modest improvement after March saw 234.3 billion rubles in uncollected revenues. Despite these fluctuations, the long-term forecast for the ruble remains unchanged. By the second quarter of 2026, it is expected to trade at 78 rubles per dollar, rising to 82–84 rubles by year-end. The yuan exchange rate also stabilised, settling at 10.95–11.00 rubles.
The ruble’s recent gains reflect the impact of lower currency purchases by the government. With daily transactions set at 5.8 billion rubles, the market has adjusted quickly. The long-term outlook, however, remains steady, with no revisions to the 2026 exchange rate projections.
