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Oil prices surge 13% as Middle East tensions and OPEC+ shifts reshape markets

A perfect storm of geopolitics and fraud scandals rocks energy markets. How will Kazakhstan's economy—and its currency—weather the turbulence ahead?

The image shows a graph depicting the lost revenue by extent of global economic losses. The graph...
The image shows a graph depicting the lost revenue by extent of global economic losses. The graph is accompanied by text that provides further details about the data.

1. Developer Meldir Suyunshali Detained

Oil prices surge 13% as Middle East tensions and OPEC+ shifts reshape markets

Astana authorities are investigating developer Meldir Suyunshali, who is suspected of large-scale fraud.

According to investigators, between 2021 and 2024, she collected funds through affiliated companies for the Nura Elite project—a gated community of 37 cottages and 24 townhouses. The properties were promised for completion by the end of 2023, but only the skeletal frameworks of the buildings have been constructed.

Fifty-six individuals have been recognized as victims, with a total of 3.9 billion tenge raised. Kazakhstan's Financial Monitoring Agency (AFM) reports that some of the money was transferred to accounts belonging to the suspect, her husband, and her mother, while another portion was cashed out.

Investigators have also uncovered cases of double-selling properties. One fully paid-for cottage was used as collateral before being re-registered to third parties and resold.

Additionally, the investigation suggests that land plots were sold under contracts for which the developer had no legal authority. Some of the investors' funds may have been diverted to other projects without proper permits. A court has placed Suyunshali under house arrest as a pretrial measure.

2. Oil Prices Continue to Climb

Global oil prices are on the rise, with Brent crude exceeding $110 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) nearing $98.

The surge is linked to escalating tensions in U.S.-Iran negotiations. After talks collapsed, markets reacted with a price hike. Further pressure comes from risks in the Middle East, including potential supply disruptions and threats to oil infrastructure. Over the past few days alone, oil prices have jumped nearly 3%, with a roughly 13% increase over the past week.

For Kazakhstan, the situation is a double-edged sword. On one hand, higher oil prices boost budget revenues and support the tenge. On the other, sharp price fluctuations heighten economic risks, given the country's continued heavy reliance on oil revenues, noted energy sector expert Askar Ismailov.

In late trading, however, oil prices began to retreat after the United Arab Emirates announced its impending withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+. Brent crude futures for June had earlier peaked at $112 per barrel but dropped to $110.12 following the UAE's statement.

3. U.S. Dollar Hits 2024 Summer Low Against Tenge

The U.S. dollar fell sharply in Kazakh trading on April 28. According to the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE), the weighted average exchange rate stood at 457.21 tenge—down 2.95 tenge from the previous session.

This marks the dollar's lowest level since June 2024, when it last dipped below 460 tenge.

Meanwhile, the National Bank of Kazakhstan has set the official exchange rate for the day at 460.80 tenge per U.S. dollar.

Exchange bureaus offer slightly different rates: in Almaty, the dollar is bought at an average of 457.89 tenge and sold at 460.14; in Astana, the purchase rate is around 454.06 tenge, while the selling rate is 461.06.

Earlier, the National Bank kept its base interest rate at 18%, a decision that also affects the exchange rate and the foreign currency market.

UAE Leaves OPEC and OPEC+: What It Means for the Market

The United Arab Emirates has announced its withdrawal from OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance, effective May 1, 2026.

Authorities explained the move as part of a long-term strategy, with the UAE aiming to expand its energy sector and boost oil production. After leaving the organization, the country plans to increase output based on market demand and global conditions.

Among the reasons cited are geopolitical instability in the region and expectations of rising global energy demand.

Underground Blowout in Zhanaozen: Pipeline Rupture at Ozenmunaigaz Facility

A major accident occurred at an oil company facility in Zhanaozen, where a powerful geyser of water erupted from underground.

According to environmentalists, on April 27 at around 3:15 p.m., a pipeline ruptured at Pumping Station No. 4, operated by Ozenmunaigaz. The breach created an opening from which water began gushing. Bystanders captured the scene on video.

The company clarified that the pipeline carried seawater. After the incident, the flow was rerouted to a backup line, and emergency crews arrived to repair the damage.

Preliminary reports indicate no injuries. Environmental experts are conducting an assessment to evaluate the impact on the surrounding area.

Phone Verification System to Be Overhauled

Kazakhstan may change its mobile phone verification system, shifting responsibility from private companies to a state-run organization.

The Ministry of Digital Development reported that the government has already approved the decision. Legislative amendments are now under review in the Mazhilis, the lower house of parliament.

If adopted, phone verification via IMEI codes will be handled by a fully state-owned company.

Previously, Kazakh citizens criticized the system for being managed by a private entity. Authorities believe that state oversight will make the process more transparent.

Man Arrested in Aktobe Over Controversial Dombra Video

A man in Aktobe has been arrested following a scandalous social media video in which he claimed that playing the dombra—a traditional Kazakh instrument—was "harām" (forbidden in Islam).

Police stated that after the video was posted, an investigation was launched, leading to criminal charges under laws prohibiting the incitement of religious discord.

The suspect was detained and placed in pretrial detention. Authorities emphasized that such statements, which could provoke hostility, carry criminal liability.

Bolashak Scholars Struggling Financially Abroad?

Kazakhstan is considering increasing payments under the Bolashak scholarship program, which have not been revised in over 15 years despite rising costs abroad.

According to the Center for International Programs, current stipends are no longer sufficient in some countries and cities—especially for students studying with families.

Authorities are now reviewing the issue, with preliminary discussions suggesting a 10–15% increase, though a final decision is not expected until next year. One proposed option is to reduce the number of scholarships to boost payments for the remaining recipients.

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