Geopolitical Tensions Overtake Climate as Top Short-Term Global Risk
Climate Risks Fade as Short-Term Priority as Geopolitics, Disinformation, and Polarization Dominate Global Concerns
A survey of 1,300 leading figures in the global economy reveals that three risks—geopolitical tensions, technological disinformation, and social polarization—have pushed extreme weather events to fourth place in the ranking of short-term threats to the world economy. This marks a significant shift, as extreme weather was the second-most-cited risk for the following two years in the previous edition of the World Economic Forum's report in Davos.
Other environmental concerns have also slipped in the rankings. Pollution has fallen from sixth to ninth place, while critical shifts in Earth's systems and the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem collapse have lost prominence among immediate global priorities.
Yet environmental issues remain a long-term concern: five of the top ten risks over the next decade are climate-related.
The 21st edition of The Global Risks Report confirms that while the effects of the climate crisis may no longer dominate short-term worries, they still weigh heavily on leaders' minds over the long term. When asked about the severity of risks over the next ten years, environmental threats take center stage, accounting for five of the ten most frequently cited concerns.
Extreme weather events top the list, followed by biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, with critical changes in Earth's systems ranking third. Also in the top ten are natural resource shortages (sixth) and pollution (tenth).
The emergence of new global concerns—aligned with major international developments over the past year—has reshaped the landscape of priorities, pushing environmental sustainability down the list of immediate actions for world leaders. The report suggests that while the issue remains important, it is no longer seen as urgent.
This decline in perceived urgency coincides with the rise to power in the United States of climate change denier Donald Trump, who dismantled the country's modest environmental protections. It also aligns with Europe's slowdown of its Green Deal under the "stop the clock" policy—a phrase that perfectly encapsulates the continent's new environmental strategy: sustainability, but not yet.
What Takes Priority Now? The Davos report identifies geoeconomic conflicts as the greatest short-term threat to global stability, followed by disinformation (which drops from first to second place) and social polarization.
Armed conflicts rank fifth (after extreme weather), cybersecurity sixth, and other top-ten risks include inequality, the erosion of human rights, and forced migration and displacement.
One of the report's most striking findings is the growing perception of artificial intelligence as a global threat. Concerns over its potential adverse effects have surged in the long-term risk rankings, climbing 25 places to fifth.
The survey also asked the 1,300 respondents to identify risks in their own countries. In Spain's case, social polarization tops the list, followed by businesses' struggles to find skilled workers and inadequate public services in third place.
Social division, labor shortages, and "insufficient" public services and social protections are seen as the three biggest risks to Spain's economy this year. These are compounded by public, corporate, and household debt, as well as limited economic opportunities and unemployment.
The World Economic Forum's report draws on insights from 1,300 global leaders and experts across academia, business, government, international organizations, and civil society. The survey was conducted between August 12 and September 22—long before U.S. intervention in Venezuela or the Trump administration's warnings to countries like Iran, Cuba, and Denmark.
