Zangezur Passway: Potential Catalyst for the Turkic Realm or Persistent Problem for Local Authorities?
The Zangezur Corridor, a 43-kilometer transit route through Armenia's Syunik region, is currently under active development and is set to become a significant economic and geopolitical artery in the South Caucasus. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has described it as a key part of a seamless transportation network extending from Europe to Asia.
The corridor, projected to be fully completed and operational within 4-5 years, will link Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave and onward to Turkey, creating a new continuous corridor for trade and transit across the South Caucasus. It is more than just a transport route; it is a major strategic infrastructure project featuring railways, oil and gas pipelines, and fiber optic cables.
The Zangezur Corridor aims to provide a shorter, uninterrupted link between Turkey and Azerbaijan, complementing the existing Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway and potentially easing regional logistic bottlenecks as trade volumes increase. Turkey's Ministry of Transport considers it a $2.4 billion endeavor, led by Turkish companies, reinforcing Turkey's role as a key regional transit hub and economic integrator.
Politically, the corridor symbolizes a transformative potential for Azerbaijan-Armenia relations and regional connectivity following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict ceasefire. It is linked to the trilateral agreement clause mandating the unblocking of regional transport and economic links, highlighting its geopolitical significance beyond just trade facilitation. The corridor embodies prospects for post-conflict normalization and economic interdependence, which could reduce longstanding hostilities if fully realized.
However, Iran views the Zangezur Corridor with considerable caution and suspicion. Tehran is concerned that the corridor, if placed under U.S. management or heavily influenced by Turkey and Azerbaijan, could undermine its own regional influence and transit monopoly. The corridor could marginalize Iran by providing an alternative east-west route that bypasses Iranian territory, potentially shrinking its access to European markets and limiting its economic leverage in the South Caucasus.
Iran’s foreign policy reflects tensions arising from Turkey's expanding influence in the region through projects like the corridor and Ankara’s military and diplomatic support for Azerbaijan during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. These developments have heightened Iran’s military activities along its borders and strained relations with Baku, reflecting broader geopolitical competition in the South Caucasus.
The success of the agreement for the Zangezur Corridor depends heavily on political will and the concrete actions of all parties, especially Armenia. The durability of peace agreements depends on many variables, including genuine implementation and international support, according to Alesger.
Despite Iran's opposition, it is unlikely to obstruct the Zangezur Corridor process, but may seek to link itself to the project in ways that make strategic sense. Iran has historically enjoyed complex ties with Armenia, including education, healthcare, and economic cooperation.
In summary, the Zangezur Corridor is poised to become a crucial economic and geopolitical artery in the South Caucasus, advancing Azerbaijan-Turkey integration and possibly fostering Armenia-Azerbaijan rapprochement, while simultaneously challenging Iran’s strategic and economic position in the region. The project exemplifies the shifting balance of power involving Turkey’s regional ambitions, Azerbaijan’s connectivity goals, and Iran’s efforts to maintain influence amid evolving alliances.
- Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, in discusssing the Zangezur Corridor, highlights its strategic importance, describing it as a key part of a transportation network extending from Europe to Asia.
- The Zangezur Corridor, linking Azerbaijan to Turkey and beyond, is not only a transport route but a major infrastructure project, featuring railways, oil and gas pipelines, and fiber optic cables.
- Politically, the corridor represents a significant potential for Azerbaijan-Armenia relations and regional connectivity, symbolizing prospects for post-conflict normalization and economic interdependence.
- Iran, with its own regional influence and transit monopoly, views the Zangezur Corridor with caution and suspicion, fearing it could diminish its access to European markets and economic leverage in the South Caucasus.
- Despite Iran's opposition, it is unlikely to obstruct the Zangezur Corridor process, but may seek to link itself to the project for strategic purposes, given its complex ties with Armenia.
- The success of the Zangezur Corridor depends on various factors, including the political will and concrete actions of all parties, particularly Armenia, according to Alesger.
