Youth Overly Optimistic About Social Mobility in Highly Inequality-Ridden Societies: A Paradox Exposed
Youths in nations exhibiting significant income disparity are more prone to accept the ideology of social ascendancy.
Young people in countries like Albania, Jamaica, and Kazakhstan harbor stronger beliefs in their future prospects compared to their counterparts in France or South Korea, according to a study. Although growth in the economy is generally not a concern, this optimism can pose several risks.
The researchers, who published their findings in the top-tier journal "Science," point out that this misplaced optimism can serve as a time bomb for society. Despite believing in social mobility more strongly, younger generations often face lower levels of upward mobility in countries with greater inequality.
"The prosperous don't always float higher the quickest—it's more a slow and steady rise," explains Francesca Borgonovi of the University College London and the OECD Centre for Skills. Artur Pokropek, from the Educational Research Institute in Warsaw, echoes her sentiments.
Inequality Through the Roof
Income disparities have been growing significantly in many countries over the past few decades. Although Germany has recently experienced a slight decline in income inequality due to an increase in the statutory minimum wage, according to data from the Federal Statistical Office, it remains a concerning trend worldwide.
Rising inequality and a stronger connection between parental wealth and future opportunities are hindering upward mobility, the experts state. According to the report, the illusion of a rising tide lifting all boats unevenly perpetuates this issue, as yachts are indeed lifted higher than rowboats.
The Great Gatsby Curve
Researchers have observed a pattern known as the Great Gatsby Curve, where social mobility is often lower in countries with higher income discrepancies. Yet, surprisingly, youth expectations of upward mobility are at their highest in countries with the starkest income disparities, as data from the Pisa study reveals.
On average, 29 percent of German 15-year-olds surveyed expect to surpass their parents' social status, compared to around 40 percent in countries like Albania, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, and Romania. Significantly fewer young people from this group expect to achieve a higher status in South Korea (18 percent), Malaysia (20 percent), and France (22 percent).
Promised Mobility, Harsh Reality
For the analysis, the researchers considered responses from about 390,000 students from 57 countries, aged 15. They were asked to indicate on a scale of 1 to 10 where they saw themselves in their country's social hierarchy at the age of 30. Most 15-year-olds expect to surpass their parents' social status in all the countries studied.
Although education is often seen as the key to success, young people may struggle to discern whether status differences are due to personal drive, effort, and abilities or unearned privileges. Their expectations might be influenced by prevalent success narratives that usually don't align with actual opportunities for advancement.
Boosting Social Cohesion—Temporarily
Prolonged economic growth has done very little to address societal implications. During periods of sustained economic growth, young people were able to surpass their parents' status, but the focus was mainly on personal advancement.
Despite the widening gap between the rich and the poor, the situation seemed acceptable because young people barely noticed the advantages of their more affluent peers, thanks to economic growth's impact on general standard of living. However, the current economic climate is changing, and unmet expectations can lead to reduced well-being, lower trust in institutions, and potentially even political unrest.
- Inequality and Disillusionment
- Young Adulthood
- Political Frustration
- The study finds that despite growing income disparities in countries like Germany, young people remain optimistic about their future prospects, which can be a double-edged sword due to the hidden risks it poses.
- The Great Gatsby Curve, a pattern observed by researchers, reveals that countries with higher income discrepancies generally have lower social mobility, yet it is in these countries where youth expectations of upward mobility are the highest.
- As a result of overly optimistic expectations and the reality of lower mobility, young adults in highly unequal societies may experience disillusionment, leading to potential political frustration.
- Addressing the social mobility paradox in Albania, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, and other similar countries will require policy-and-legislation changes and a reevaluation of thegeneral-news narratives that might be contributing to the excessively high expectations among young people.
