Youthful labor force and expanding population in Central Asia indicate economic dynamism, according to the newest research study.
Kazakhstan is currently experiencing a decline in population growth due to a falling birth rate, with annual births dropping from approximately 446,500 in 2021 to 365,900 in 2024, and further decreases continuing into early 2025. The total fertility rate decreased from 23.5 births per 1,000 people in 2021 to 15.4 in early 2025, indicating fewer children being born per woman over time[1].
Regionally, fertility rates vary significantly, with the highest birth rates in Mangistau and Turkestan regions (21.3 per 1,000) and the lowest in North Kazakhstan, Kostanay, and East Kazakhstan (around 8.5 to 9.6 per 1,000)[1].
This demographic trend is accompanied by an aging population. As of 2022, those aged 60 and over constitute about 14% of the population. This aging trend poses increasing demand for long-term care services and healthcare infrastructure[5].
Education infrastructure faces challenges due to demographic pressures, youth labor market entry, and evolving skill requirements. The labor market expects around 360,000 youth entering annually until 2035, driving demand for modern skills and jobs, particularly in digital and emerging professions[3]. There is a clear need for education system modernization, retraining, and revised professional standards to align skills with market needs. Regional disparities and internal migration strain urban education and social infrastructure, complicating equitable access and quality[3].
While specific data on Kazakhstan’s education infrastructure investments were not found, parallels with countries like Romania show that demographic shifts require increased spending and capacity building in early childhood and school education systems to accommodate population changes and labor market needs[2].
Ayaulym Sagynbaeva, head of the Center for the Study of Xenophobia at the Institute of Applied Ethnopolitical Research, emphasized the need to correlate demographic sustainability with demographic security to determine whether demographic growth is a benefit or a risk. She also noted that there is a shortage of kindergartens and school places in Kazakhstan, particularly in the west, south, and Astana[4].
In conclusion, Kazakhstan is facing complex demographic challenges. The slowing population growth, regional variations in fertility rates, aging population, and strains on education and social infrastructure require careful policy consideration and investment to ensure a sustainable and secure future for the nation.
[1] Kazakhstan Today, "Kazakhstan's Birth Rate Continues to Fall," 2024. [2] World Bank, "Demographic Transition and Education in Romania," 2023. [3] United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, "Education for Sustainable Development in Kazakhstan," 2023. [4] Kazakhstan Today, "Sagynbaeva Discusses Demographic Challenges," 2024. [5] Kazakhstan Ministry of Healthcare, "Aging Population Trends in Kazakhstan," 2022.
Despite the declining birth rate in Kazakhstan, there seems to be a growing interest in sports among the youth, with several regional championships held annually. On the other hand, weather conditions can significantly impact outdoor sports activities, which could have an impact on youth participation and development.
