World Order Redefinition by 2025: Will Middle Powers Reshape Global Politics?

In a world dominated by major powers, middle powers step up to balance the scale and promote peaceful, cooperative coexistence. On May 30 at the Astana International Forum (AIF) 2025, a session delved into the growing importance of middle powers in today's multipolar world.

(L-R) Thomas Greminger, Akan Rakhmetullin, Darren Spinck, Michel Duclos, Kairat Sarybay. Credit: AIF

Kazakhstan: Seeking the Middle Ground

As the host country, Kazakhstan aims to position itself as an aspiring middle power, actively seeking to mediate conflicts and pursue win-win solutions, particularly in the Eurasian region. The session's moderator, Darren Spinck, associate fellow at the UK's Henry Jackson Society, invited Kazakhstan's First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Akan Rakhmetullin, to share his insights.

"Kazakhstan strives to be a middle power, in the classical sense. We aim to be as vocal, active, and constructive as possible, especially in the Eurasian region," he said.

Due to its challenging geographical surroundings, Kazakhstan's foreign policy is shaped by realities that require a strong focus on maintaining balance and avoiding isolation.

Rakhmetullin highlighted the emergence of new centers of power, such as Russia, China, the European Union (EU), and the African Union, which offers opportunities yet poses challenges.

"These evolving dynamics afford countries the chance to define the kind of world they wish to inhabit as equal partners who understand one another's needs," he said.

Rakhmetullin underscored that middle powers become more relevant than ever, serving as critical balancers in an international system dominated by major powers.

"Without balance, there can be no peace and sustainable development, whatever that may entail," he said.

He explained that Kazakhstan's multi-vector foreign policy is a natural expression of its middle-power status.

"This approach to balance defines our foreign policy. We are friends to all and enemies to none, a hallmark of a middle power. We actively engage in various arrangements and produce initiatives that lead to a safer world," he explained, using the example of Kazakhstan's historic decision to renounce nuclear weapons.

"It has been 33 years since we gave up our nukes. I remember there were countries who advised us not to do that, claiming there should be a nuclear deterrent in this part of the world. But we made that decision without hesitation," he said.

Building a Stronger Collective

Kairat Sarybay, Chairman of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA), spoke about Kazakhstan's long-standing commitment to collective security, a driving force behind the launch of CICA in 1992. In Sarybay's view, the country strongly believes in the concept of preventive diplomacy.

"Preventive diplomacy benefits the international environment. It allows us to focus on our state's development. That's why we strive to create a more predictable environment and build a collective security system," he explained.

Sarybay also stressed the strategic importance of connectivity among middle powers.

"Today, Asia hosts 21 of the world's 30 major cities, yet it remains poorly connected in transport, logistics, finances, and people-to-people connections. That's why connectivity should be a top priority," he said.

Europe's Balancing Act

Michel Duclos, Special Advisor and Senior Fellow at the Institut Montaigne, presented a European perspective on middle powers. He explored how countries like France must often balance national interests with those of larger blocs like the EU, citing France in the Cold War as a prime example.

"We adopted a form of multi-alignment policy during the Cold War. De Gaulle launched a détente policy, saying: Yes, we belong to the West, but we want good relations with the East and want to surmount divisions," Duclos said.

Duclos highlighted that this approach brought significant diplomatic prestige, as France became the first Western country to recognize Communist China.

Strategic Autonomy and Cooperation

Thomas Greminger, Executive Director of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP), looked ahead and predicted that more countries would begin to see themselves as middle powers in response to rising hegemony by great powers.

"Being a middle power doesn't mean neutrality or formal non-alignment. Kazakhstan serves as a prime example - it entertains good relations with Russia, China, the United States, and the European Union," Greminger said.

He emphasized that diversification of political and commercial relations fosters greater flexibility and strategic autonomy, the building blocks of a successful middle-power strategy.

"Middle powers have a vested interest in a predictable international system based on the rule of law," he added.

Greminger warned that without such rules, countries risk becoming victims of great power rivalries.

"I envision closer cooperation among middle powers in the years ahead. Cooperation may occur through multilateral institutions, or it may involve countries like Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland - and, of course, Kazakhstan," he said.

"In a world that is becoming increasingly tripolar, the majority of states may soon fall into the middle-power category. They will have both a self-interest and a collective interest in shaping international norms, and in sticking together to avoid being squeezed by global powers," he concluded.

Patience and Process Expertise

The session concluded with a realistic assessment of the challenges in striking a balance between the interests of traditional powers while adapting to the growing influence of emerging actors. When asked about ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Greminger emphasized the importance of patience and process expertise.

"Six to nine months ago, it was almost taboo to discuss ceasefire negotiations. Now, there is a shared understanding that political solutions must be on the table. But what is still lacking is process expertise - the knowledge of how to structure negotiations. Conflicts don't get resolved in a few days. The Korean conflict took two years to negotiate. Others have taken longer," he said.

He urged the international community to show more patience, especially at the media and political levels.

"We've learned a lot over the past 30 years about conflict resolution. The know-how exists, but linking it with the right actors at the right levels of government is the challenge," Greminger concluded.

AIF 2025 returns for its second gathering this year, attracting a diverse array of prominent politicians to debate various topics, from geopolitical upheavals to green energy. This forum aspires to address global challenges by amplifying diverse voices, much like President Tokayev emphasized in his speech on the forum's second day.

The general partner and sponsors of the AIF 2025 are the Samruk Kazyna National Welfare Fund, ERG, and Freedom Bank Kazakhstan. The official sponsors are Kazakhmys, Karachaganak, KAZ Minerals, North Caspian Operating Company, Tengizchevroil, Alatau City, Baiterek Holding, VISA, Stepnogorsk Bearing Plant, Caspian Oil, Qarmet, and RG Gold.

In the context of the Astana International Forum (AIF) 2025, discussions revolved around Kazakhstan's aspirations, as a middle power, to mediate conflicts and pursue peaceful solutions, particularly in the Eurasian region, highlighting the importance of policy-and-legislation related to conflict resolution and regional cooperation.
The growing significance of middle powers in a multipolar world was a key subject at the AIF 2025, with participants including representatives from Europe, Asia, and Africa, emphasizing the need to understand and address politics involved in balancing power dynamics, not only at national levels but also in international negotiations and policy-making.