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In a significant shift for Berlin's political landscape, a recent Civey survey conducted on behalf of the 'Tagesspiegel' has revealed some intriguing trends for the upcoming House of Representatives election in autumn 2026.
The survey, which polled 3,000 people between September 2 and 16, 20XX, offers a glimpse into the potential voting intentions of Berliners. The current Berlin government, a black-red coalition of CDU and SPD, does not seem likely to have a majority one year before the election, with the combined vote share of the CDU and SPD standing at 38%.
The CDU, currently the strongest party with 25% of the vote, has seen a slight dip, losing 3.2 percentage points compared to the 2023 House of Representatives election. The SPD, currently the fifth strongest party, has lost 5.4 percentage points, now standing at 13%.
The Greens, who held 15% of the vote in the last election, have experienced a significant drop, losing 3.4 percentage points, leaving them with 11.6%. The AfD, on the other hand, has gained 6.9 percentage points, putting them in a tight race with the Greens and the Left, who are tied for second place with 16% each.
The Left has gained 3.8 percentage points, while the AfD's surge can be attributed to a gain of 6.9 percentage points. Interestingly, the FDP, despite being asked in the survey, is predicted to receive only 2% of the vote, falling short of the 5% hurdle required to enter the Berlin state parliament.
A newcomer to the scene, the BSW, a party not present in the last House of Representatives election, is projected to receive 7% of the vote, potentially entering the Berlin state parliament for the first time.
It's important to note that the likely strongest party in the next Berlin state election in autumn 2026 cannot be directly concluded from the Civey survey results. Recent trends in broader German polls show the CDU/Union leading with around 27%, with AfD close behind at 25%, while SPD, Greens, and Left are lower. However, these trends do not necessarily reflect specific Berlin data from 2021.
The statistical error for the overall results of the Civey survey is 3.3 percentage points, highlighting the need for caution when interpreting these results. Nonetheless, the survey provides a valuable insight into the shifting political landscape in Berlin, offering a snapshot of the potential voting intentions of Berliners as we approach the 2026 election.
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