WNBA Predictions and Betting Odds: Aces, Sparks, Lynx, Liberty, Mercury, Storm, Mystics - Predicting Performance and Wagers for Each Team
Welcome back to the 2025 WNBA season! If you missed my inaugural piece, check it out and see where my T Shoe Index found some value in a few season win totals - including wagers on the Indiana Fever and Dallas Wings.
Let's wrap up the remaining league win total projections and add some more Over/Unders to our collection, featuring the New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces. Here are the rest of the T Shoe Index's predictions for the 2025 WNBA season:
Las Vegas Aces: Win Total Over/Under 30.5
After bagging back-to-back WNBA titles under coach Becky Hammon, the Aces struggled with championship hangover in 2024, were sluggish (and unhealthy) at different moments throughout the season, and it caught up with them, denying a three-peat. But what did Vegas do this offseason? Shake things up - big time. A massive trade sent star guard Kelsey Plum to the Los Angeles Sparks, landing them Jewell Lloyd from the Seattle Storm.
The TSI doesn't expect them to reclaim their crown just yet, projecting 25.4 wins; although, that is well under the current win total Over/Under of 30.5. The question now is how well can Jewell Lloyd fit into the system? If she hits the ground running, the TSI may be undervaluing Vegas, but if it gets clunky early on trying to balance Lloyd's shots with superstar A'ja Wilson (not to mention the other stars on the team), they might just fall below this total.
Bet: Under 30.5
Los Angeles Sparks: Win Total Over/Under 20.5
Speaking of Plum, she's now the face of the LA Sparks alongside young star Cameron Brink, who's coming off an ACL tear and isn't expected back until closer to the WNBA All-Star Break. That potent 1-2 punch is supported by FIBA 3x3 star Dearica Hamby, who's an inside force in her own right.
The Sparks did lose several players from 2024, but Plum should help offset that production. If Brink was healthy from the jump, I'd be inclined to bet this win total Over, but TSI is only calling for 18.3 wins, so another Under lean for me.
Lean: Under 20.5
Minnesota Lynx: Win Total Over/Under 30.5
After putting together a successful 2024 season that brought them back into title contention, the Lynx are hungrier than ever and looking to avenge their Finals loss to the Liberty. Leading the charge is Napheesa Collier, who was sensational defensively for Minnesota. The Lynx were relatively quiet this offseason compared to some of their fellow teams, but did acquire sharpshooting forward Karlie Samuelson via trade from Washington to help provide more spacing for Collier inside.
The Lynx also bring back all-star guard Kayla McBride, so they're essentially rolling out the same cast. TSI projects another solid year for them, with 27.7 wins, but the market has pushed them to 30.5.
Lean: Under 30.5
New York Liberty: Win Total Over/Under 32.5
Fresh off a championship victory, the Liberty return almost everyone from their winning roster. However, the loss of Courtney Vandersloot to Chicago cannot be ignored. She played a crucial role as a floor general offensively, and it remains to be seen if Sabrina Ionescu and the gang can fill that void. They still bring back league MVPs Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones to pair alongside Ionescu, so they likely still feel confident about their title defense chances.
The TSI projects a substantial 29.5 wins for the Liberty, but the market is now at 32.5. I know I sound like the proverbial "bet the Under on every good team" guy, but I think the market is overvaluing these contenders, and the league seems more balanced in 2025. Stay away from this one.
Advice: Stay Away
Phoenix Mercury: Win Total Over/Under 24.5
Retirement took out Diana Taurasi, but Brittney Griner departed for Atlanta. Fortunately, Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally were obtained to pair with Kahleah Copper. The market seems to be high on this trio as a legitimate contender this year, but the TSI isn't following suit, projecting just 16.3 wins - well under the 24.5 the market has set. The truth might be somewhere in the middle, but the Win Share numbers for those three just didn't warrant the upgrade Phoenix appears to have received.
Bet: Under 24.5
Seattle Storm: Win Total Over/Under 25.5
The Storm have attracted attention with some noteworthy offseason moves - notably losing superstar Jewell Lloyd (via trade with Las Vegas and Los Angeles) and acquiring Lexi Brown and Zia Cooke to help fill the void. But Seattle did their best to strengthen their team by signing Nneka Ogwumike, Alysha Clark, Erica Wheeler, and Katie Lou Samuelson, as well as drafting international dunking sensation, Dominique Malonga.
The TSI projects only 23.2 wins for Seattle, while the market is at 25.5. With so many moving parts and a narrow gap in the projections, this one's a stay away for me.
Advice: Stay Away
Washington Mystics: Win Total Over/Under 14.5
The Mystics are currently in rebuild mode. They traded away Ariel Atkins for the #3 pick, lost Shatori Walker-Kimbrough to free agency, and franchise legend Elena Delle Donne confirmed her retirement.
This isn't going to be an easy season for Washington, but the TSI projects a slight improvement over the current win total of 14.5, with 15.5 wins. With three top-6 picks in the 2025 draft, the future may still be shining in DC, but this year looks to be a struggle.
Advice: Stay Away
If you're ready to dive into the 2025 WNBA scene, remember to follow me on [platform] at @TShoeIndex for more betting insights!
Additional Details:
- Las Vegas Aces: With the addition of Jewell Lloyd and the loss of Kelsey Plum, the Aces' roster appears to be on the upswing, as the TSI expects them to bounce back and be near the top of the league with 25.4 projected wins.
- Los Angeles Sparks: Losing several key players this offseason, the Sparks acquired former all-star guard Kelsey Plum to bolster their roster, but her return from ACL rehab and the absence of Cameron Brink may hinder their performance.
- The TSI's predictions for the 2025 college football season have not been shared yet, indicating a potential exploration of other sports-betting opportunities such as the WNBA.
- Previous sports-betting wins by the T Shoe Index include wagers on the Indiana Fever and Dallas Wings in the 2025 WNBA season, demonstrating success in the basketball realm.
- Sports-betting enthusiasts may be interested in the odds for the NBA's future MVP, given the recent domination of players like A'ja Wilson in the WNBA.
- For those who like a diverse sports betting portfolio, the sluggish performance of the Las Vegas Aces in the 2024 WNBA season might present an opportunity to bet against them.
- Veteran point guard Courtney Vandersloot's departure from the New York Liberty may provide an opening for her replacement to step up defensively, which could impact the team's performance throughout the 2025 WNBA season.
- In addition to the WNBA and NBA, fans of sports-betting might be looking for futures odds on the next champion for sports such as the NFL and NCAA Football, following the excitement created by the Super Bowl and college football's playoffs.
