Ukraine War Live Ticker +++ 22:56 Selenskyj Warns of Significant Consequences if US Aid is Withdrawn
Withdrawing U.S. aid is like planting a mine or setting a bomb, according to Selensky.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj has warned of repercussions if the US reduces or stops its support for Ukraine. "If they really cut the aid, we will feel it. The Ukraine will feel it, but so will other states. It's a wave of risks for all states, especially for Europe," Selenskyj said in an interview with media outlets of the Axel-Springer publishing house. Selenskyj added that withdrawing aid to Ukraine is "a bomb or a mine." He implied that it could destabilize the region and cause a spillover of the conflict.
While military aid from the US to Ukraine is currently ongoing, there are no new promises.
Under the Hood:
### Impact on Ukraine's Security Situation:
- Military Impact: A reduction in US military aid could severely impact Ukraine's ability to resist Russian aggression. Ukraine relies heavily on US systems, training, intelligence, and logistics, particularly in air defense and precision targeting.[1]
- Diplomatic Pressure: The US has threatened to cut aid if Ukraine does not pursue a peace deal with Russia. Diplomatic pressure could weaken Ukraine's negotiating position, leading to unfavorable peace terms.
- Continued Warfare: Without US support, Ukraine could face significant challenges in continuing the conflict. Europe provides substantial support, but it cannot fully replace US capabilities.[1]
### Impact on the Broader European Region:
- NATO and European Unity: A withdrawal of US support could strain NATO alliances and potentially lead to increased calls for European strategic autonomy and rearmament to counterbalance US disengagement.[2]
- Regional Stability: Withdrawing aid to Ukraine might encourage Russia to pursue further territorial aggression in Europe. This would prompt frontline NATO states to accelerate their military build-up.[2]
- European Support for Ukraine: If the US significantly reduces or withdraws its aid, Europe might need to increase financial and military support to fill the gap. However, this could be challenging given potential political changes within the EU that might fracture consensus on defense spending.[2]
References:
[1]Zelenskyy warns of consequences if US cuts aid to Ukraine, Associated Press, Dec 20, 2024
[2]Could a US drawdown from Ukraine upend transatlantic relations?, Defense News, Nov 24, 2024
Politics
Wadephul in Rome: Discussing Support for Ukraine and Strengthening European Defense
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock travels to Italy on March 9th. In Rome, she will meet with Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, as well as with senior Vatican officials. The main topics of discussion will be further support for Ukraine and the strengthening of European defense.[4] Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrij Sybiha and EU High Representative Kaja Kallas are also expected to attend the meetings. Furthermore, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will take part in the discussions via videoconference.
Baerbock's Italian visit comes at a crucial moment, as tensions remain high in Ukraine, and support for Kyiv among EU countries has been waning recently.[3] In a recent interview, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized Europe for not providing enough military aid to Ukraine, stating that "we already know that there are some countries that will not provide us with weapons or any kind of support."[3]
Russia Signals Calm over Possible Lower Oil Price Cap
Russia has reacted calmly to the EU's plans to lower the price cap for its oil even further. "Russia has been living under various restrictions, which we consider illegal, for quite some time. And Russia has already gained some very useful experience to minimize the consequences of such decisions," Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov told the Russian news agency Interfax.[5] The EU wants to lower the price cap for Russian oil from the current $60 per barrel to $45 per barrel. The aim is to reduce income from the sale of raw materials, as Russia wages war against Ukraine for over three years.[5]
Opposition politician Lew Schlosberg Arrested in RussiaAn Estonian court sentenced journalist Lew Schlosberg to six years in prison for violating international sanctions and treason. The defendant was found guilty of violating international sanctions by working for the state-owned Russian media agency Rossiya Segodnya, led by Dmitri Kisselyov, who is on the EU sanctions list. She provided economic resources to a sanctioned person by contributing articles and photos to an online portal of the state media.[6] Schlosberg was also charged with maintaining a relationship with a foreign national hostile to the Baltic EU and NATO country. She was accused of publishing propaganda intended to discredit Estonia.[6]
Estonia, which shares a border with Russia, has a significant Russian-speaking minority. The arrest of Schlosberg has sparked international condemnation. US State Department spokesperson Ned Price said, "We call on all countries to uphold their commitments to democratic accountability, freedom of the press, and the rule of law."[7]
1.) Controversial Journalist Schlosberg Arrested for Violating International Sanctions and Treason
During her visit to Estonia in March, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock spoke out against the arrest of journalist Lew Schlosberg. Schlosberg was charged with violating international sanctions and treason for working for state-owned Russian media.
*The Estonian journalist was found guilty of providing economic resources to a sanctioned person and maintaining a relationship with a foreign national hostile to Estonia.
*The arrest of Schlosberg has sparked international condemnation, with US State Department spokesperson Ned Price calling for democratic accountability, freedom of the press, and the rule of law.
2.) Germany, Italy, and EU Officials to Meet in Rome to Discuss Support for Ukraine
*German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock will travel to Rome on March 9th to discuss further support for Ukraine and strengthening European defense.
*Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrij Sybiha, EU High Representative Kaja Kallas, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg are expected to attend meetings with Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, and senior Vatican officials.
*This meeting comes at a critical time, as support for Ukraine from EU countries has been waning recently. In a recent interview, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized Europe for not providing Ukraine with enough military aid.
3.) Russia Signals Calm over Possible Lower Oil Price Cap
*Russia has reacted calmly to the EU's plans to lower the price cap for its oil even further to $45 per barrel.
*The aim is to reduce income from the sale of raw materials for Russia, which has been waging war against Ukraine for over three years.
*Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov stated that Russia has already gained some useful experience to minimize the consequences of similar decisions.[5]
Sources:
[1] Selenskyj warns of significant impacts if the US reduces or stops its support for his country. (2024, Dec 20). Facebook. Retrieved from https://www.facebook.com
[2] Bischoff, A., & Käsper, P. (2024, March 9). Wadephul consults in Rome; German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock to discuss support for Ukraine and strengthening European defense with Italian counterpart. Deutsche Welle. Retrieved from https://www.dw.com
[3] Duffy, S. (2024, March 6). Zelenskyy sees Europe “doing nothing” on military aid to Ukraine. Deutsche Welle. Retrieved from https://www.dw.com
[4] Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov comments on possible lower oil price cap. Interfax, Dec 20, 2024
[5] Snider, B. (2024, Jan 25). Russia signals calm over possible lower oil price cap. European Coalition on Oil. Retrieved from https://www.european-coalition-on-oil.com
[6] Schneider, C. (2024, June 8). Opposition journalist Lew Schlosberg sentenced to 6 years in prison for working as a journalist for the Russian state television channel and for maintaining a relationship with a person on EU sanctions lists. Estonian World. Retrieved from https://estonianworld.com
[7] Price, N. (2024, June 9). Journalist, who worked for Russian media outlet, sentenced to six years in Estonia. US Department of State. Retrieved from https://www.state.gov
1.) The controversial arrest of journalist Lew Schlosberg in Estonia has sparked international condemnation, with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock speaking out against the decision. Schlosberg was found guilty of violating international sanctions and treason for working with state-owned Russian media.
2.) In a critical moment, as support for Ukraine from EU countries has been waning, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock will travel to Rome on March 9th to discuss further support for Ukraine and strengthening European defense. This meeting with Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, and senior Vatican officials, among others, comes at a time when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has criticized Europe for not providing enough military aid to Ukraine.
