Withdrawal of U.S. Troops Poses Significant Economic Implications for Europe, According to Research
Ready, Set, Replace: The Hefty Price Tag of European Defense Without US Forces
By Red Rebel
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The withdrawal of US troops from Europe could put the continent in a vulnerable position. The absence of hundreds of planes, tanks, and air defense systems would leave a significant gap. A study highlights the critical investments required to fill the vacancy.
The potential removal of US forces stationed in Europe would result in a whopping price tag. According to a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the cost of replacing the forces dedicated to the European region over the next 25 years could reach up to a staggering $1 trillion, above and beyond current European state expenditures[2][3].
In the realm of air and maritime defenses, Europe currently lacks the industrial capability to ramp up production quickly. To close the capability gaps caused by the Russian threat, purchases from foreign producers, particularly US manufacturers, would be expedient[1].
Shopping List of Doom
The new acquisitions would encompass a wide variety of expenses, ranging from $226 to $344 billion, contingent on the models selected and the quality specifications[1]. The most costly items on the list would be the purchase of 400 tactical combat aircraft, costing up to $64 billion, followed by the acquisition of 20 ships of various types, costing up to $50 billion[1].
In the field of air defense systems, land combat tanks, and helicopters, states would need to invest heavily in equipment. The IISS estimates that replacing approximately 128,000 US soldiers would add another $12.3 billion annually to the cost[1].
Time's a-wastin'
The said number includes troops stationed and earmarked for NATO deployments across the continent. Currently, roughly 78,000 soldiers are stationed in Europe, with nearly half in Germany[1].
Despite the colossal sums, the study fails to cover all the costs resulting from a potential US withdrawal. Expenses related to nuclear weapons, military coordination, intelligence, and general surveillance are not factored into the report[1].
Eastward Ho?
The study assumes that hostilities in the Russian offensive against Ukraine will cease by year's end, potentially paving the way for the US gradually to withdraw from NATO[1]. Scientists believe that Russia could quickly rebuild its military capabilities following the cessation of hostilities and pose a "significant military challenge" to remaining NATO allies by 2027[1]. The Baltics remain a possible flashpoint in this scenario.
Shift Happens
The Trump administration has consistently declared since January its intention to shift its military focus to other regions, with the assertion that Europe must learn to stand on its own feet[1]. This strategy commenced during the Obama administration with the foreign policy strategy "Pivot to Asia." More recently, Defense Minister Pete Hegseth underlined during a visit to US troops in Germany that an assessment of the placement of forces worldwide is underway[1].
China in the Spotlight
A memo from the Pentagon chief at the end of April underlines this shift in focus. The document does not mention Europe, highlighting instead the need to prioritize the defense of the US homeland and deterrence of China in the Indo-Pacific region[1].
Given these statements, the prospect of a U.S. troop redeployment in Germany seems uncertain at best. From next year, long-range weapons systems of the US Multi-Domain Task Force are expected to be stationed in Germany—equipped with SM-6 missiles and Tomahawk cruise missiles. Germany currently lacks comparable countermeasure weapons to counter threats from Russia[1].
To Buy or Not to Buy?
Experts have expressed doubts about whether the agreement reached between Biden and the US in 2024 will remain in effect[1]. Under Hegseth's strategy, these could also be stationed with an Asian partner of the US—focused on China. And Germany would have to fund this operation[1].
Sources:[1] ntv.de[2] Chatham House[3] IISS
Keywords:
Attack on Ukraine
Ukrainian Crisis
NATO
US Troop Withdrawal
European Defense
- The European Parliament has also expressed its concern at the recent events in the country, as the potential removal of US forces stationed in Europe could potentially lead to a military vacuum, requiring significant investments from European states to purchase equipment and personnel to fill the gap, costing up to a staggering $1 trillion over the next 25 years.
- In addition to the high cost of replacing US forces, expenses related to other aspects such as nuclear weapons, military coordination, intelligence, and general surveillance are not factored into the report, indicating that the overall cost could be even higher.
