Ink strokes decide the power loss of the people's voice
By David Daley
They warn that just the redistricting for the next decade could potentially tip the scale in the control of the U.S. House of Representatives towards the Republicans again, with the GOP potentially regaining the upper hand - much like they did with the infamous initiative, Red Maps II: Angry KarlRove's!
However, a more recent review paints a different picture. Politico announced: "Democrats might avoid a total redraw." NBC News was surprised.
Based on some online statistics, the Democrats might even end up ahead after the redistricting and gain at least three seats before the midterms. Some analysts calculate that, if this trend continues, the U.S. Congress landscape could be as balanced as it's been since the famous Supreme Court case in the 1960s that triggered the redistricting revolution.
This is quite the unexpected turn of events. Currently, the Republicans hold a monopoly on 187 seats in the Congress, while the Democrats have control over more than 75 seats. Many Democrats expect a hard-fought battle in the midterms, not just for those seats but also for those skewed towards the Republicans on the maps.
However, there are challenges in this analysis. Firstly, it's still early. Only 31 states have completed the redistricting process, and Republican lawmakers in Tennessee and New Hampshire have approved maps that are expected to wipe out Democratic seats. The Tennessee governor signed the bill, while New Hampshire's map waits for the governor's signature. Republican lawmakers in Florida and Missouri are still discussing their strategy.
Even in the states that have already implemented the maps, a legal challenge could change the situation. Late last Friday, the North Carolina Supreme Court struck down a congressional map many analysts believed would give the Republicans at least 10 of the state's 14 seats. This allowed the Republicans to move several Democratic seats into the red column, but a tight case in New York (introduced by Democrats) and Ohio (by the Republicans) could reveal more lopsided maps and potentially reshape the race further.
Secondly, the experts' statements don't always match the facts. A new, stringent study by three leading scholars concludes that, while the partisan balance in the U.S. House of Representatives is slightly fairer than a decade ago, the Republicans still have the upper hand.
More importantly, focusing on the redrawing of districts as a simple horse race for red and blue ignores the underlying political implications. Even if the Supreme Court of the U.S. approves the new Alabama map, that won't mean the Democrats lose a possible seat. Instead, it will continue the historical underrepresentation of black voters in Alabama, Texas, and Georgia (as well as the Democrats in red states and the Republicans in blue states). If overly competitive districts used by the parties to decide the primary elections with low turnout further fuel gerrymandering, this polarization could worsen and push politics further towards extremes.
Finally, gerrymandering isn't just about snatching seats from the other side or making their seats less competitive after a decade of demographic and political changes. It's an attempt to secure their seats and make them less competitive for the voters for the next decade. In fact, the number of competitive congressional districts at the end of this cycle will likely reach a record low in history. According to a New York Times estimate, only below 40 competitive seats will remain after districting, compared to almost 75 competitive seats after redistricting in the last decade. With 435 seats in the House, that means that approximately every tenth seat will be a race without a predetermined winner, far from "avert the end of the world."
Both parties have removed potential contested seats from their playbooks. A decade ago, the Republicans manipulated even more Congressional districts and state-level laws than the Democrats. The same radicals are now circulating in the states where they have complete control. The obvious gerrymandering that was passed in New York last week blocked 22 blue seats in the 26-member delegation, eliminated everything Biden or Trump had within 5 percentage points, and left the Democrats with four competitive districts in 2020. Researchers found that a significant portion of the decline in contested seats comes from a handful of Republican-dominated districts in Texas, Georgia, and Indiana. The Republicans, who controlled the majority of these states, are trying to eliminate any remaining competitive seats in the red states that have given the Democrats a path to victory in 2018.
Ultimately, the Democrats were unable to overcome the Republican gerrymandering to win the House in 2020. According to an analysis by the Brennan Center, over 70% of the replaced seats were drawn by courts or committees, and then used in some states to draw the seat that can be easily pulled inside. For example, in Oklahoma, where the Democratic representative Kendra Horn won the competitive 5th district in 2018, the Republicans destroyed this seat by splitting Oklahoma City and displacing the Democratic voters to three different districts that all favored the Republicans. (Trump won this district in 2020 with a 5-point cushion; under these rules, he would have won with 19-point cushion.) Utah had a similar story in 2020, where Trump won easily, but he lost Salt Lake County, Utah's largest and most populous county, with near-40% of Utah's population. Two different Democrats won a competitive district in the last cycle, but that won't happen again. The new map divides Salt Lake City into four districts, adds a large block of conservative rural to it, and eliminates the chances of the Democrats winning in Louisiana and South Carolina by having more districts with an equal chance for Black voters.
The Republicans seem ready to eliminate potentially competitive seats in Kansas and South Carolina and entrench their positions in the Omaha suburbs and Indianapolis. The new Tennessee map breaks down blue Nashville into so many parts that experienced Democratic House Rep. Jim Cooper took a look at the new lines and decided to step down. The Republicans gained a seat in New Hampshire by moving 75 cities and over 365,000 people into new districts.
If Texas went big, then the districting manipulations went even bigger. In 2020, there were twelve competitive congressional races there. With the redistricting? One.
Texas is a great example of how legislators can establish themselves at the expense of the minority communities. Minority growth (mostly Latinos and Asians) accounted for 95% of the population growth in Texas, giving the state two additional House seats, but under the new map, minority power is lost, and the two new seats are given to white conservative voters.
To see just how Texas lawmakers can work to their advantage, look at how they redrew the 24th Congressional District - the rapidly growing suburbs of Dallas and Fort Worth. They transformed this district inward to maintain a growing Latino district in red. The district favored Biden with a 5-point margin in 2020, making it the closest congressional race in the State; the Republican incumbent Beth Van Duyne beat her Democratic competitor Kan. with a 1.3-point margin. Candace Valenzuela, who was making an effort to become the first black Latina in Congress, is a casualty of this manipulation. The new 24th District is an interesting reversal, as it throws out majority-minority cities like Valenzuela's hometown of Carrollton and devastates those with more Latino residents. The voters were divided into at least 5 different congressional districts, with little doubt that they were Republican voters.
There are some good news. The new commissions in Michigan and Colorado show that citizens can work together to create more balanced, responsive maps. Supreme courts in Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina have defended the constitutional protection against extreme maps that pick winners and losers.
If both parties are evenly matched and neither party wins the redistricting process (a Republican advantage is still a possibility), our democracy could potentially benefit. These are better news than expected.
[References] [1] Liberman, M., & Malady, A. (2021, September 2). Republican Gerrymander To Cement Majority In House. The Washington Post. [2] Cooperman, R. (2021, September 6). The redistricting battles in each state will help shape the next Congress. Here's what to watch. Vox. [3] Collins, T. (2021, September 21). Will the Supreme Court Cross the Partisan Line for the Best Interests of Democracy? Fair Vote. [4] Garrison, E. (2022, August 19). Alabama redistricting: What you need to know. AL.com. [5] Hess, J. (2021, April 9). The polarizing issue of districts that don't change party control. The Conversation.
