Winds of Skepticism Swirl
The Struggling Black-Red Coalition: A Government in Crisis
The stability and effectiveness of Germany's black-red federal government, a coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD, have been called into question, with the coalition's collapse in early 2024 and subsequent early elections held in February 2025.
The decline in the coalition's popularity and public confidence has been significant. As of August 2025, the coalition's overall approval rating dropped to around 37%, with the CDU/CSU and SPD trailing behind the far-right AfD, which is now Germany's largest single party in public polls.
The incompatibility of policy goals and ideological differences between the CDU/CSU and SPD have contributed directly to the coalition's early collapse. Despite the coalition agreement's emphasis on boosting infrastructure and climate funding, political disarray has undercut the effective implementation of these priorities.
The political landscape has become more fragmented, with shifts towards more polarized or fringe parties, reflecting a broader instability and voter dissatisfaction with the traditional governing parties. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's personal approval rating dropped to a new low of 29% by August 2025, indicating weakened leadership and limited public trust in the governing coalition's effectiveness.
One of the key issues that have caused tension within the coalition is the pension problem. The ratio of contributors to pensioners has declined dramatically over the years. In 1992, there were 2.7 contributors for each pensioner, but by 2050, only a ratio of 1.3 is expected. Economist Martin Werding suggests raising the retirement age on a long-term basis, but the SPD has a ban on considering "extended working life". CDU Minister of Economics Katherina Reiche is provoking the ban on "extended working life".
The SPD's push to recognize a Palestinian state, especially one dominated by Hamas terror, complicates a mediating foreign policy. The idea of solving the pension problem without considering demographic realities is out of touch with reality.
The duration of pension receipt has increased significantly over the years. From 1998 to 2023, the duration of pension receipt increased from 13.6 to 18.8 years for men and from 18.4 to 22.1 years for women. From 2050 onwards, retirement will start at 68, and from 2070 onwards at 69.
The SPD's demand for "limited scope" for tax increases, as emphasized by Bremen's mayor Andreas Bovenschulte, and SPD General Secretary Tim Klußendorf considering 47 billion euros spent on the citizen's allowance as insignificant, further highlight the ideological differences within the coalition.
Doubters may feel emboldened, as some see little determination and resolve from the coalition, beyond weak announcements and strong broken promises. No investment turnaround is in sight for the German government. Ralph Stegner reminded of 2017 when the SPD passed the wealth tax with the Union.
In summary, the black-red coalition government that started this legislative period is no longer considered stable or effective, as evidenced by its collapse in 2024 and the early elections of 2025. The growing policy disagreements, deteriorating public confidence, and challenging socio-political dynamics suggest it cannot be expected to hold together or govern effectively through a full legislative term.
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