Wimbledon 2024 Men's Last Four Rounds - Examination & Predictions

Title Clash Beckons: Audacious Predictions for Djokovic and Alcaraz

It's time to put the pedal to the metal in the Men's singles at Wimbledon 2023. The semifinals are set, and the tension is palpable as the heavyhitters take to Centre Court. Let's dive into the crucial showdowns:

Semi-final 1: Alcaraz (3) vs Medvedev (5)

This eagerly anticipated duel will mark their 7th career clash and their third tango at Wimbledon. As things stand, Alcaraz leads 4-2 in their head-to-heads with four consecutive victories, but let's not forget Medvedev's domination in their inaugural encounter at Wimbledon 2021.

Remember the 18-year-old Alcaraz, a rookie torn apart by the Russian? Their next meeting in last year's Wimbledon semifinals, saw an entirely different narrative, with Alcaraz comfortably winning in three sets (6-3, 6-3, 6-3).

Though Medvedev avenged that defeat at the US Open, Alcaraz has since clinched consecutive straight-set victories over the Russian in the 2023 Nitto ATP Finals and Indian Wells.

Alcaraz, the current Wimbledon and French Open champion, is the hot favorite at -320 for the win, while Medvedev comes in at a more lucrative +250. But things haven't been straightforward for Alcaraz at this Wimbledon, with an unspectacular opening four matches and a gritty comeback against Tommy Paul in the quarterfinal.

Medvedev's path has been surprisingly serene considering his sluggish 2023 form. He's rekindled the quality that took him to the top three in the world, making him a dangerous adversary. After a sluggish 2023, he's been on an upward trajectory, particularly over the last fortnight, so expect a stern challenge. If Medvedev can raise his A-game, things could get interesting, but he'll have to adapt to Alcaraz's ultra-effective drop-shot and play outside his comfort zone to stand a chance.

Prediction: Alcaraz to win in Four Sets (+275)

Semi-final 2: Musetti (25) vs Djokovic (2)

Novak Djokovic, the 37-year-old Serb juggernaut, continues his pursuit of title number 8 amid an underwhelming Wimbledon performance thus far. His gripping three-set victory against Holger Rune notwithstanding, Djokovic has managed to bypass Alex de Minaur with a walkover in the quarterfinals to set up this semifinal encounter with Lorenzo Musetti.

With no history of dominance against Musetti, Djokovic is listed as a prohibitive favorite at -700, while the Italian is priced at a generous +500 underdog, making this the furthest the 22-year-old has ever progressed in a Grand Slam. Given they've crossed paths six times previously, it's worth noting that Djokovic leads 5-1, although the outcomes when they've met at Grand Slams have often required five grueling sets.

Musetti's grass-court record has historically been subpar, but his impressive 18-5 record on grass in 2023 has shattered that stereotype. This epic streak includes a run to the final at this summer's Queen's Club Championships, of which he has five victories at Wimbledon to date.

Despite his progression, Musetti hasn't exactly played a straightforward route to the semis, with no straight-sets victories, and two matches going the distance. Conversely, Djokovic’s path to the semis has been relatively placid after dropping sets against Jake Fearnley and Alexei Popyrin in the early rounds.

In summary, it's hard to envision Musetti making it to the final, as Djokovic will be a formidable obstacle. Don't be surprised if the Serb seals the deal in straight sets, but remember, if Musetti somehow manages to push the match deep, expect some drama, as Djokovic's injured knee may play a role.

Prediction: Djokovic to win in Straight Sets (+110)

[1] OddsShark[2] Bet365[3] Bovada[4] ESPN[5] ATPTour.com

Novak Djokovic, aiming for his 275th win in sports tennis, will be playing his semifinal match on Friday against Lorenzo Musetti.
Despite tending to struggle on grass courts, Musetti has staged a remarkable comeback this year, reaching the semifinals of Wimbledon.
In their past encounters, Djokovic has usually won against Musetti, but given the current form of the young Italian, the Serbian tennis star may need to go the distance to secure a spot in the finals.