Will Trump's strategy lead to tranquility in the South Caucasus region?
The peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, facilitated by the United States under the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) initiative, was initialed and signed in August 2025 at the White House. The agreement, a significant milestone towards ending the long-standing conflict, was sealed by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and former U.S. President Donald Trump.
This historic agreement aims to end hostilities, respect sovereignty, and establish inter-state relations between the two nations. A strategic transit corridor, the TRIPP corridor, is a central part of the deal. This corridor enables a connection between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory, operated under Armenian law but developed and subleased by a U.S. consortium for 99 years. The goal is to foster trade and regional connectivity.
The agreement also calls for the dismantling of the OSCE Minsk Group mediation efforts, historically responsible for handling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The aim is to reduce the influence of Russia, China, and Iran in the South Caucasus by establishing direct transport and economic links bypassing them.
However, the agreement faces significant challenges. Armenia must amend its constitution to remove references to Nagorno-Karabakh, a politically sensitive and deeply controversial step within Armenia, facing strong domestic opposition. There are unresolved territorial issues involving Azerbaijani exclaves in Armenia that pose risks to Armenia’s land connections, causing concerns over the durability of peace and territorial integrity.
Iran has expressed concerns and threats to block the TRIPP corridor, citing security. Meanwhile, Turkey and the U.S. are suggested to engage diplomatically with Iran to ease tensions and opposition toward the peace process. The joint agreement is seen not as the final peace treaty but a critical initial step needing further ratification, constitutional changes, and implementation for lasting peace and stability.
The TRIPP project, which started in 2023, also aims to break the deadlock in peace efforts. The European Union has announced its own investments in regional infrastructure and offered mediation for the peace agreement. Russia's influence in the South Caucasus is visibly weakened by the agreements.
The conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region was a significant part of the dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Under the agreement, Armenia retains full control over its territory but may allow private U.S. security firms to secure the project. Azerbaijan is allowed to use the infrastructure built in the Syunik region.
The regional economic potential will be unleashed through comprehensive investments in infrastructure, energy, and modern technologies. The agreements signed at the summit aim to pave the way for a peace agreement and guarantee security and stability. Despite these ambitious goals, political and territorial sensitivities, domestic Armenian opposition, and regional geopolitical resistance remain key hurdles for its full realization and long-term success.
References: 1. BBC News (2025). Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal: What does it mean? [online] Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-58106807 2. Reuters (2025). Armenia and Azerbaijan sign peace deal brokered by U.S. [online] Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/armenia-azerbaijan-sign-peace-deal-brokered-us-2025-08-10/ 3. The Washington Post (2025). Trump's peace deal for Armenia and Azerbaijan could reshape the South Caucasus [online] Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/08/10/trumps-peace-deal-for-armenia-and-azerbaijan-could-reshape-south-caucasus/ 4. The New York Times (2025). Armenia Faces Opposition at Home Over Peace Deal With Azerbaijan [online] Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/11/world/europe/armenia-azerbaijan-peace-deal-opposition.html 5. The Diplomat (2025). The Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal: What's Next? [online] Available at: https://thediplomat.com/2025/08/the-armenia-azerbaijan-peace-deal-whats-next/
- The cooperation policy between the EC countries, as exemplified by the European Union's investments in regional infrastructure following the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement, may serve as a model for future conflict resolution in general-news scenarios.
- The peace agreement Between Armenia and Azerbaijan has led to a shift in regional politics, potentially diminishing the influence of traditional mediators such as Russia, China, and Iran, creating a need for new policies in cooperation and diplomacy.
