Will the truce between Cambodia and Thailand remain stable?
In a significant development, a ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia has been agreed upon following five days of intense border clashes. The ceasefire, which took effect at midnight on Monday, was facilitated by Malaysia, the current chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
The conflict has been a source of political tension, with Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, recently suspended by Thailand's Constitutional Court pending a probe into a leaked phone call with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen. The conflict has been used by the Thai military and royalist elites to weaken the Thaksin political dynasty.
Third-party monitoring for the ceasefire is being organized primarily through the ASEAN Defence Attache Observer Team (AOT), which includes members from Malaysia, Indonesia, Laos, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam. The team began its mission on August 3, 2025, following agreement on the terms of reference (TOR) for monitoring during secretariat-level discussions facilitated by Malaysia.
However, operational details and the authority of the monitors are still under negotiation, facing practical challenges due to access and trust issues between the parties. Neither Thailand nor Cambodia has explicitly granted full access or authority for intervention to the monitoring teams, and concerns remain about enforcement and transparency regarding troop movements and deployment.
Meanwhile, the United States, the largest export market for both Cambodia and Thailand, is facing tariff rates of 36% unless they can talk Washington down by Friday. Trump's threats likely factored into both countries' decisions, according to Harrison Cheng, a director at Control Risks.
The ceasefire may largely hold as both sides have achieved most of their objectives. However, doubts about the extent to which the US would be invested in the border dispute and the implementation of the ceasefire may exist among both countries, according to Harrison Cheng.
On a different note, over 300 trained African giant pouched rats are currently deployed in mine clearance operations worldwide. In Cambodia, these rats can search an area the size of a tennis court in just 30 minutes. Remnants of war still endanger the lives of some 1 million people living nearby, with approximately 1,600 square kilometers of contaminated land remaining to be cleared.
The clashes have further cemented the rule of the Hun family in Cambodia, with former Prime Minister Hun Sen and his eldest son Hun Manet, who succeeded his father in 2023, benefiting from the situation.
Despite the challenges, the third-party monitoring under ASEAN auspices offers hope for a peaceful resolution to the border dispute. The role of Malaysia, being in the same geographical region, would be better placed to continue playing a mediating role, according to Harrison Cheng.
- The ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia, agreed upon after five days of border clashes, is a significant political event in international news.
- The conflict has been used as a tool by the Thai military and royalist elites to weaken the Thaksin political dynasty, adding a layer of general-news complexity to the situation.
- ASEAN, with Malaysia as its current chair, is facilitating third-party monitoring for the ceasefire through the ASEAN Defence Attache Observer Team (AOT), which includes members from several Asian countries.
- As the United States, a large export market for both countries, threatens tariffs, it may have influenced the decisions of both Thailand and Cambodia regarding the ceasefire, according to Harrison Cheng, a director at Control Risks.
- Meanwhile, over 300 African giant pouched rats are deployed in mine clearance operations worldwide, working in Cambodia to clear dangerous remnants of war from contaminated lands, a critical issue for the safety of approximately 1 million people living nearby.
