Will Starmer deliver on his pledge to lessen immigration levels?

When the PM stepped up on the Downing Street stage this morn, he proclaimed, "Politics enthusiasts will try and twist this all 'round to politics." But the PM's spiel on immigration wasn't just politically charged - it came hot on the heels of Nigel Farage's recent electoral triumph.

In what's being dubbed "the biggest overhaul of the immigration system since Brexit," Labour's Keir Starmer swore to decrease net migration to the UK and beef up the domestic workforce. He boldly declared, "Mark my words, this plan means migration will drop, that's a promise."

He said, "We've brought visa applications down nearly 40% since this admin rolled in. But now's the time to step it up, to assure the British people that the experiment's finished."

So why now? Net migration's already showing a decline since June 2023, according to the Office for National Statistics, albeit from record-breaking heights with 728,000 new residents in the year up to July 2024. This figure's forecast to drop over the upcoming years.

Number 10 insists the speech's got nothing to do with Reform UK's council election performance but, let's be honest, Farage's got a finger in the wind of political affairs.

Speaking of Reform UK

One of the paper's key points is a tougher threshold for entry, prioritizing integration. Starmer suggested, "Those wanting to join Britain for a new life must contribute, be fluent in our language, and assimilate."

To enforce this, research's being done on racking up the English language test for visa applicants and their dependents.

Richard Tice, Reform UK's second-in-command, claimed credit for this move, informing City AM, "We've heard lots of warm words from the Prime Minister, and he's picking up the Reform lingo on integration, on learning the English language." However, Tice went on to say, "We want zero net immigration, and that's what the majority of Brits want."

The Centre for Public Policy Research's Amreen Qureshi agreed, stating Labour's drawing from Reform's "principles of control and contribution cohesion in their strategy."

This White Paper comes after months of immigration being a hot-button topic. However, the PM said scant about illegal migration, focusing more on a steady reduction in legal immigration to Britain.

Qureshi said Labour's "focus is to drive down net migration, which is politically convenient, but it's not necessarily a one-size-fits-all strategy."

The White Paper acknowledges that humanitarian migration from nations like Ukraine and Hong Kong has played a role in recent migration surges, allowing entry to "a limited pool of UNHCR-recognized refugees and displaced people."

Qureshi said, "Although the politics revolves around driving net migration down, we've spotted some good parts in the white paper that we do embrace that would help protect vulnerable people in the immigration system." These inclusions cover "tackling exploitation" and "greater flexibility for visa holders on certain routes."

Does the Immigration Overhaul Go Far Enough?

The Centre for Policy Studies' research director, Karl Williams, says the white paper doesn't go far enough on crucial Reform UK issues like the expulsion of criminal foreigners, instead, "simply pushing the can down the road until at least the end of the year."

The administration faces a walk-a-tightrope act in tackling voter concerns over immigration without harming the economy by slashing employers' access to top foreign talent or, indeed, workers in sectors that rely heavily on foreign labor, like the care sector.

According to The Sun, the Treasury's already pushing back against the immigration White Paper, as Whitehall doctrine maintains that migrants are essential to plug UK skill shortages and generally boost the economy.

Stephen Webb, Head of Home Affairs at Policy Exchange, stated, "the Home Office is regularly outmaneuvered by most other Government departments advocating more migration in their domains, and the PM needs to stand firm and enforce these changes - rather than letting them be weakened by officials and ministers across Whitehall."

Just last week, the Lords Science and Technology Committee penned a letter to senior government officials, stating, "the UK's current immigration system, and approach to STEM talent for academia and industry, is 'a form of national self-harm.' The policy needs to adapt to recognize competition for top talent in science and technology." Something that Reeves staunchly supports.

MPs and policy mavens across the board agree getting immigration figures down necessitates a corresponding policy to educate British workers. The government's contemplating a route that would prohibit employers from sponsoring skilled visas if they're not contributing to upskilling the domestic workforce.

Tice, however, isn't swayed. "We've got plenty of skills. I'm just not convinced of that at all. We've got 70 million people in this country. It's a record population."

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch dismissed Starmer's proposals, claiming the PM "can't be trusted" on the issue. She said, "Keir Starmer once branded all immigration laws racist. So why trust him when he says he wants to bring immigration down?"

Immigration constantly ranks high on lists of voters' worries, and Qureshi said while some parts of this announcement "were in response to political happenings ... if the government wants a major shake-up of the immigration system, it needs to take a careful approach that balances what our economy needs."

One of the proposed measures includes closing social care visas to new foreign entries, unless employers can prove they've fruitlessly sought local talent first.

According to the White Paper, "exploitation increased as unregulated care companies were allowed to bring in unskilled workers for jobs that didn't meet acceptable standards."

The IPPR's associate director, Marley Morris, says "if the government wants to halt visas for care workers from abroad, it'll need to improve wages and conditions for carers to prevent worsening the current staffing crisis."

The free-market Adam Smith Institute's director of public affairs, Maxwell Marlow, said, "solving the UK's long-standing productivity problems will require more than just curbing immigration. A genuine commitment to resolving the housing crisis and accelerating the adoption of automation, particularly in labor-intensive sectors like care and construction, is essential."

After years with net migration soaring to record numbers under multiple Conservative leaders, Labour will be seeking a political advantage from the announced changes by the PM. However, as the UK's lengthy and contentious immigration debate teaches us, if citizens don't see - or feel - change in the ensuing years, Labour might face a significant political problem by the time of the next election.

The White Paper, with its focus on reducing net migration, seems to draw from the "principles of control and contribution cohesion" that Reform UK has advocated, as acknowledged by Amreen Qureshi from the Centre for Public Policy Research.
In the realm of policy-and-legislation, Labour's promise to decreased net migration and beefing up the domestic workforce comes in response to both the political climate and Nigel Farage's recent electoral triumph, as suggested by the Centre for Public Policy Research's Amreen Qureshi.
A key aspect of the immigration overhaul is a stricter English language requirement for visa applicants, a move that can be traced back to Reform UK's stance, as revealed by Richard Tice, Reform UK's second-in-command in an interview with City AM.