Brace Yourself for a Wet Winter in Germany?
With the recent downpours, Germany seems to be transforming from a drought-stricken country to a potential flood risk zone. The abundant rainfall has already surpassed the average for many regions, according to current data. But will this year see the breaking of a two-decade-old record, possibly in 2023?
There's no denying that the clouds are looking particularly menacing, forecasting a wet winter in Germany in the fall of 2023. After the dry spells of the past years, the welcome rainfall might pose some challenges, though. The high precipitation levels are already causing trouble in some parts of the country.
West and south Germany, in particular, are grappling with the aftermath of excess rain. The water levels are rising dangerously, with the Rhine, Aller, and Danube reportedly suffering under high flood risk. The amount of rain in certain regions has already surpassed the standard average, as revealed by the rainfall amount map of Germany.
Germany as a whole is seeing an above-average rainfall thus far in 2023, surpassing its yearly quota, according to German Weather Service (DWD) data. By mid-November, the country had received an average of 788.9 liters per square meter across all regions. This total exceeds the long-term average for the years 1961 to 1990, despite the remaining 5 potentially rainy weeks ahead.
In comparison, the average rainfall for the entire year of 2022 was 669.1 liters, and the previous year had 801.1 liters. The long-term average is 788.9 liters for Germany, as per DWD data. The year with the most rainfall in the recent past was 2002, with an overall average of 1018.1 liters of rainfall nationwide.
Bavaria's Balderschwang is currently leading the rankings of the highest rainfall, with around 2500 liters, although this is typical for the area. Dry Quedlinburg in Saxony-Anhalt, however, has experienced modest rainfall of 650 liters, despite being in the Harz Mountains' rain shadow. The local weather station is however, recording the largest deviation from the normal annual total in Germany, with an overwhelming 160% of the measured rainfall.
Other European countries are also experiencing a similar trend. Lake Garda, for instance, is registering rising water levels once more, after a prolonged summer drought.
Saarland Tops the List of Wettest Federal States
While it has mostly been dry in the southwest in recent years, the past few weeks have recorded the heaviest rainfall. In Baden-Württemberg, around 450 liters of rain per square meter have fallen in the first two-thirds of November.
Currently, though, Saarland holds the title of the wettest federal state in Germany, with an average of approximately 1000 liters of rain per square meter. North Rhine-Westphalia is not far behind, also recording high rainfall. Germany, as a whole, has experienced more rain than usual since 2017.
Rainfall is not limited to the ground; some mountainous areas also retain water as snow for longer periods, which can help ease flooding situations. Björn Alexander, a meteorologist at ntv, however, warns that the soil is getting saturated, and the upper layers are unable to absorb any notable amounts of rainfall. Most of the remaining rainfall will therefore likely run off above the ground, increasing the risk of flooding.
Despite the excess rainfall, the long-term average for the last ten years remains significantly below the standard. More rain is required to bring the vegetation and groundwater back to their normal levels. Hot summers and winters with insufficient snow have led to the lack of water in nature, drying out the forests and fields to their deeper soil levels.
Will We See a Record Year in 2023?
The future of Germany's rainfall is uncertain, according to ntv meteorologist Björn Alexander. The American weather service NOAA predicts that December will also experience an above-average precipitation, but the European weather model points to much drier, frosty conditions.
The current heavy-rainfall events, the frequency of which has increased, might contribute to the overall yearly precipitation. However, these are not definitive indicators of a record-breaking year without explicit data on the year's total rainfall.
The data provided is not enough to conclusively say whether Germany is going to break its two-decade-old record in 2023. To make that determination, the specific annual precipitation data for 2023 would be required.
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