Why the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season has spared the U.S. so far
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, initially predicted to be above normal with multiple U.S. landfalls, has so far been spared from such events. Unique atmospheric conditions and a bit of luck have kept hurricanes at bay, with no landfalls recorded yet.
AccuWeather estimates the chance of a U.S. landfall this season at less than 5%. This is due to strong dips in the jet stream, dry air, and disruptive wind shear that have prevented hurricanes from making landfall along the Atlantic or Gulf coasts. Additionally, the Bermuda High was weaker and positioned farther east, allowing storms to curve around its western edge and head out to sea.
The peak hurricane activity remains over the Caribbean and nearby islands, influenced by warm sea surface temperatures. However, unique atmospheric conditions, timing of cold fronts, and luck have helped the U.S. avoid a hurricane landfall during the peak of the season. If no hurricane makes landfall in the U.S. by Nov. 30, it will be the first Atlantic hurricane season in 10 years without a U.S. landfall.
The Southeast U.S. was also spared from major flooding from Hurricane Imelda due to the rare Fujiwhara Effect. Despite the forecast of an active season, the combination of atmospheric conditions has so far protected the U.S. coast from hurricane landfalls.
