The Ever-Evolving Political Panorama of Latinos in the U.S.
Justin Gast
Nix the misconception that Latinos form a unified political front. Historically, they've shed a diverse coat - economically, culturally, and racially/ethnically. Yet, in the political arena, they've long been the steadfast Democratic base.
But times may be a-changin'. As the era's cultural conservatism reigns, backed by a nationalist mindset, data suggests a growing inclination towards the GOP among Latino voters. This trend might not stem from love for the Republican Party but rather an evolving self-perception from the newest generation of Latinos.
Sergio Garcia-Rios, a political scientist at Cornell University and survey director for Univision, noted that the notion of unity (unidad) isn't embraced by all Latinos. "People have several identities … and we do, too," he said. Garcia-Rios highlighted the increasing disconnect between the new generation of Latinos and the immigrant wave that preceded them.
During Texas' 2022 primaries, an enticing target for Democrats in the presidential race, this separation is palpable. Dems argue that demographic shifts will work in their favor, with the aging white working class making room for high-skilled service workers and new immigrant minorities - the cornerstones of the Democratic coalition.
But the 2016 election saw Hillary Clinton win Zapata County, a Mexican border district, by nearly 33%. Yet, within four years, this district had transitioned to Republican Party ranks. Webb County, another border district, mirrored a similar trend, with a significant increase in Republican voter turnout, while Democrat-leaning Starr County boasted a 55% surge in Republican voter turnout in 2020.
In 2016, Trump captured 94% of the Latino vote in Zapata County, 94% in Webb County, and 94% in Starr County. By 2020, Trump's support had actually increased by 10 percentage points in 18 Texas districts that are at least 80% Latino.
The eccentricity of these patterns intrigues. Trump's "deplorables" hues in the Midwest and Rust Belt struck a chord, yet these same voter demographics hadn't linked Latino identities to his nationalist rhetoric in Texas.
South Texas, a region rich in Tejano heritage, offers a curious landscape. Many Tejanos, whose ancestors arrived generations ago, identify as such, rooted deeply in the American melting pot. However, the immigrant wave from Mexico has posed a challenge to their assimilation. As early as the mid-20th century, Tejanos distanced themselves from the Latino wave and Chicano activism, which Polarization 101: Defining Identity illustrates can boil down to perceived threats to one's standing or existence. In Zapata County, 94% of the population identifies as Hispanic/Latino today but classifies their race as White.
Democrats consider these Tejano voters to be a taken-for-granted lot in their ranks, as the chasm between the two parties in racial and religious composition has calcified. The fervor of identity politics, with its potential to undermine empathy for other races or religions, pervades the modern political climate in the United States.
Yet, the mid-20th century showcases a different narrative; in 2000, American Muslims cast 70% of their votes for George W. Bush, a Republican. In 1992, Asian American voters leaned Republican by nearly 55%. As Bush père and fils, respectively, epitomize, the pull of cultural debates about race, immigration, and Islam appeals to some Latinos – a shift that grapples with modern political affiliations.
Republican congressman Ryan Guillen from the Rio Grande Valley joined ranks with the GOP in November. "There's something happening in South Texas," Guillen said, echoing Ditto heads across the Borderlands. "Many of us recognize that the values in Washington D.C. aren't our values, or the values of most Texans. Ideologies that promote defunding the police, damaging the oil and gas industry, and destabilizing the border are untenable for those of us in South Texas."
In addition, Democrat and former Pennsylvania city counselor Angel Figueroa, campaign coordinator for Republicans, espoused, "As a culture, we (Latinos) are heavily Catholic and predominantly pro-life. People, especially Puerto Ricans, lean heavily towards Republican values."
Latino voters in the 2020 election allotted 38% to Trump, the highest share since 2004, which witnessed George W. Bush's 44%. Moreover, as per a Wall Street Journal poll, 60% of Latino voters leaned toward the right, highlighting a narrow 22% undecided segment that polarizes along party lines.
Given the swelling size of the Hispanic electorate, who contribute a whopping 39% to the total growth of the eligible voter population in the US, the decline in Democrat support is a significant concern for the Democrats in the lead-up to the 2022 midterms.
Yet, there's a silver lining in sight: a growing number of Latinos express concerns about racialization in politics. In essence, the fragmentation of political preferences along racial lines in the United States could have a positive impact on nationhood in the long run.
As the Hispanic electorate expands, Republicans may be compelled to reevaluate their stances on immigration and identity politics to secure their appeal in Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and Florida, besides diversifying voter bases in other regions. This dynamic was central to the 2004 Republican strategy.
Despite the complexity of the political landscape, whether this evolution will materialize remains to be seen.
Sources:
Polarization 101: Defining Identity
Enrichment
Amidst the deceptive myth of unity among Latinos in the U.S., several factors influence their political leanings:
- Economic Concerns: As per a survey by the Latino Community Foundation, economic challenges rank high among the concerns for Latino voters, pushing some towards Republican policies that prioritize job security and economic growth.
- Immigration and Anti-Immigration Rhetoric: Political affiliations among Latinos are swayed by rhetoric on immigration and border control. Some Latinos support Donald Trump due to his stern stance on immigration, despite the potential fallout.
- Diverse Priorities: Divergent experiences and priorities among distinct Latino subgroups affect their voting behavior, as evidenced by the contrast between Cuban-American and Mexican-American voters.
- Party Polarization: The increasing polarization within the Republican and Democratic parties has prompted less-educated voters to gravitate towards conservative personalities like Donald Trump.
- Shifting Demographic Profile: The growing number of affluent and conservative Latinos and their increasing representation in political discourse has reshaped the political landscape among Latinos.
These factors demonstrate a more nuanced, multifaceted approach to Latino voter behavior and political affiliations, as opposed to the oversimplified notion of a monolithic voting bloc.
