The Evolving Political Landscape of Latinos in the U.S.
Justin Gast
Contrary to the monolithic stereotype of Latinos as a single political entity, they've always been a diverse group – economically, culturally, and in terms of race and ethnic background. However, politically, they've traditionally been the most reliable Democratic demographic.
But that might be changing. In an era marked by strongly nationalist, culturally defensive conservatism, surveys show a growing support for the Republican Party among Latino voters. This trend might have less to do with how Latinos view political parties in the U.S. and more with how a new generation of Latinos sees themselves.
"The concept of unidad (unity) is not shared by all Latinos," said Sergio Garcia-Rios, a political scientist at Cornell University and the survey director for Univision. "People have multiple identities … and we do, too." Garcia-Rios noted that we are starting to see a new generation of Latinos who are increasingly distanced from the arrival of immigrants.
During the primaries leading up to the 2022 Texas elections, Texas is a notable example. Democrats are eyeing Texas in the Presidential race, arguing that the pace of demographic change will swing things in their favor. In many parts of the American Southwest, the aging white working-class population is giving way to high-skilled service workers and new immigrant minorities – key components of the Democratic coalition.
But in the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton won Zapata County, a Mexican border district, with nearly 33 percent of the vote. However, by 2020, this district had shifted to Republican Party ranks. There was a significant increase in Republican voter turnout in Webb County, another border district, which saw a decline compared to 2016. In Starr County, just south of Webb, Republican voter turnout in 2020 was 55 percent higher than in 2016, marking the largest swing to the right in the country.
The Trump campaign reported similar trends in white working-class areas in the Midwest and Rust Belt in 2016, but in Zapata County, Webb County, and Starr County, it captured 94 percent, 94 percent, and 94 percent of the Latino vote, respectively. By 2020, Trump had actually gained 10 percentage points in 18 Texas districts that are at least 80 percent Latino.
These voters have become the target of Trump's attacks on demographic change. He's questioned the loyalty, values, and heritage of Mexican-Americans and even suggested that a judge of Mexican descent couldn't be impartial in a case involving Trump University. (Trump later claimed his words were misconstrued.)
These voters are against the border, they want it militarized, and they see it as responsible for many of America's ills. It's unclear why Trump's rhetoric hasn't awakened Latino identity enough to mobilize more Democratic support in the Rio Grande Valley, where people don't necessarily identify as Latinos or immigrants, and haven't based their choices on Trump's identity-related rhetoric.
Much of the Texas electorate, especially in South Texas, identifies as Tejanos and has been in the United States for six, seven, or eight generations. Some families have never immigrated; their old saying goes, "I didn't cross the river; people from the northern provinces did."
The Tejano voters, whose ancestors arrived later, have been shaped by the assimilation regime and strict schools. Many no longer speak Spanish. It's no wonder that so many Tejanos struggle to understand the experiences of the latest Mexican-American immigrants, let alone newcomers from Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua.
As early as the mid-20th century, Tejanos distanced themselves from newcomers and Chicano activists who politicized their existence. In Zapata County, 94 percent of the population identifies as Hispanic/Latino in today's U.S. census, but 98 percent classify their race as White.
It's worth noting that Tejano voters – and Latino voters more broadly – are practically taken for granted by the Democrats, revealing a fundamental truth about American politics over the past 20 years. While other countries approach the "minority majority" milestone, where the original majority loses its numerical advantage to one or more immigrant minorities, our political parties remain racially and religiously divided.
Over 90 percent of racial and non-Christian religious minorities lean Democrat, while more than 80 percent of Republican voters are white. Simply put, American elections have more to do with identity politics, which can undermine the ability of people to empathize with other races or religions, as they perceive them as an existential threat.
This isn't always the case – at least not in the United States. In 2000, about 70 percent of American Muslims voted for George W. Bush, while Bush nearly evenly split the Latino vote in 2004. In 1992, about 55 percent of Asian Americans voted for Bush's father. However, the recent shift towards the Democratic Party can be better understood. Since 2001, Republican campaigns have been dominated by cultural debates about immigration, race, and Islam. But surprisingly, this could appeal to some Latinos.
Democratic congressman Ryan Guillen from the Rio Grande Valley switched parties in November, joining the Republicans. "Something is happening in South Texas, and many of us recognize that the values of Washington, D.C. are not our values or the values of most Texans," Guillen told reporters. "The ideologies of defunding the police, destroying the oil and gas industry, and causing chaos at the border are catastrophic for those of us who live in South Texas."
Democrat and former Pennsylvania city councilman Angel Figueroa, who recently worked on Republican campaigns, told the Wall Street Journal, "As a culture, we are overwhelmingly Catholic. We are overwhelmingly pro-life. The people, especially Puerto Ricans, are in much greater agreement with Republican values."
In the 2020 election, Trump won 38 percent of the Latino votes, the highest share for a Republican since 2004, when George W. Bush secured 44 percent. In 2020, 60 percent of Latinx votes leaned to the right, according to a Wall Street Journal poll, which found that Latino voters were evenly split between the two parties, with 22 percent undecided.
Since 2000, Hispanic eligible voters have made up 39 percent of the total growth of the eligible voter population in the country, making the largest contribution to the electorate of all ethnic or racial groups. For the Democrats, who are gearing up for midterm elections, this declining support is a worrying trend.
However, the silver lining on the horizon is that more Latinos are reportedly opposed to the "racialization" of politics – the division of political preferences along racial lines in the U.S. This could have long-term benefits for the country.
As the size of the Latino electorate grows, some Republicans might be compelled to shift their stance on immigration – and identity politics more broadly – to appeal to Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and Florida, as well as more varied voters in other states. This was the strategy of the Bush campaign in 2004.
Given the current political landscape, though, it's doubtful that this will happen.
Hold onto our free weekly newsletter.
Sign up for CNN Opinion's new newsletter for the latest comments and opinion pieces from us.
Follow us on and
Read also:
- A survey conducted by the Latino Community Foundation found that economic challenges were among the top concerns for Latino voters .
- According to the Pew Research Center, Trump won the highest share of Latino votes since 2004, with 38 percent, while Biden received 58 percent .
- The National Bureau of Economic Research highlights that more educated American voters have moved to the left, while the Republican Party has become increasingly polarized on cultural issues, pushing less-educated voters towards the Right .
Enrichment Data:
The political affiliation among Latinos in the United States has shown a significant shift towards the Republican party, particularly in recent years. Several factors contribute to this trend:
- Economic Concerns: Many working-class and middle-class Latinos are aligning with Republican policies that focus on economic issues such as the cost of living, housing costs, jobs, and the economy. A poll by the Latino Community Foundation highlighted that these issues are among the top concerns for Latino voters [1].
- Immigration and Anti-Immigration Rhetoric: Some Latinos are drawn to Republican candidates like Donald Trump who use anti-immigration rhetoric. This can be attributed to a subset of Latinos who express denial of racism and are influenced by Trump's racial appeals, despite the negative impact of such rhetoric on the broader Latino community [4].
- Economic Fragility: Latinos in economically fragile situations may support Trump due to economic reasons. For example, individuals working in industries like oil and gas or immigration control may support conservative candidates like Henry Cuellar due to job security and economic stability [4].
- Demographic Changes: The demographic makeup of the Latino community is evolving, with an increasing number of affluent, conservative Latinos. This shift is reflected in the growing support for Trump among Latino voters, particularly among men [1][2].
- Party Polarization: The polarization of party leadership and increased party discipline have contributed to the realignment of voters. While less-educated voters have increasingly supported progressive economic policies, the growing polarization on cultural issues has pushed these voters towards the Republican Party [5].
- Diverse Priorities: Latino Republicans are forming their own caucuses to address priorities that diverge from those of their liberal colleagues. For instance, the California Hispanic Legislative Caucus focuses on education, public safety, and affordability, reflecting a broader shift in Latino priorities beyond traditional Democratic issues like immigration and healthcare [1].
These factors collectively contribute to the increasing political affiliation of Latinos with the Republican party, highlighting a more complex and nuanced political landscape within the Latino community.
