When a political party leader, akin to Pierre Poilievre, experiences defeat in his own constituency.
In an unexpected blow, Pierre Poilievre faces a defeat in his home turf, leaving him scrambling to find a solution to maintain his presence in Ottawa. Although he has the option to remain leader without a seat in the House of Commons, this won't last long according to political scientists.
Being a mere observer of political events, such as watching from galleries or Parliament corridors, would be exceedingly difficult for Mr. Poilievre. his strength lies in questioning and attacking his opponents during question periods. His visibility and opportunities for confrontation would drastically decrease without this platform.
He could still spend time on Parliament Hill, meet with journalists, and hold impromptu press conferences, but staying in the background is contrary to his personality and leadership style.
Even with the Conservative Party winning 144 seats at the time of writing, more than they had at the dissolution of Parliament, the expert duo believes another Conservative MP may offer to sacrifice their seat for the benefit of their leader. This would involve resigning and triggering a byelection.
This move is perfectly constitutional and understandable, according to the two experts. While they don't suggest any names of potential MPs, they predict that Poilievre will look for a safe riding to avoid another defeat, which would be a significant setback for him and his party.
Navigating the complexities of politics, Robert Bourassa from Quebec faced a similar situation in 1985. Although his party won a landslide victory, he lost his riding. Ten days later, a fellow party member ceded their seat to him, thus enabling his eventual victory in the byelection. In this case, an exchange was made, with the resigning MP being appointed to a state-owned company shortly after.
If the situation unfolds in a similar manner for Pierre Poilievre, the "quid pro quo" he receives should not appear as a bribe, warns Geneviève Tellier. As for the significance of the sacrifice, one might wager that the party could win in two, three, or four years.
Another comparable case is that of Bonnie Crombie, the leader of the Ontario Liberal Party, who was defeated in the riding she ran for the first time in the provincial elections last February but remains at the head of the party.
Further Reading
- Interactive | Federal Election Results
- Live Coverage of Election Day
- Despite Defeat, Pierre Poilievre Promises to Stay On
Reasons for Defeat
Pierre Poilievre had won in his stronghold of Carleton seven times in a row, dating back to 2004. However, it was the Liberal Bruce Fafard who won with less than 4000 votes, according to the official results on Tuesday morning.
The conservative base in this riding is solid, but Poilievre chose Carleton before the crisis with Donald Trump, leading some to speculate that the vote for his opponent may have been stronger than he had anticipated and that he may have overestimated his invincibility.
Additionally, some of his recent decisions have proved unpopular among his voters. His support for the truckers' convoy in Ottawa in 2022 was criticized by residents of these neighborhoods, and his announcements of cuts to the federal public service may have cooled down voters who all know someone working for the federal government.
The conservatism of Carleton is not that of Alberta, creating a rift within the Conservative Party, which may be a topic of discussion in the coming weeks. It is, however, unlikely that he will decide to resign as leader of the Conservatives.
Additional Insights
- Historical Precedents for Party Leaders Losing Seats and Byelection Strategies: While the Canadian federal party leader scenario of losing their own seat and immediately vacating another to trigger a byelection has no recent precedent, similar political maneuvers have occurred in other Westminster-style parliamentary systems. Some examples include Winston Churchill in the UK (1922), Arthur Balfour (1906), and John Howard in Australia (2007).
- Party Unity vs. Legality and Tradition: Forcing a byelection risks accusations of undemocratic maneuvering and breaches of party unity, especially if a loyal MP resigns to enable the leader’s return. Additionally, the Leader of the Opposition status (and its perks, such as Stornoway) is contingent on holding a Commons seat, adding urgency to the situation.
[1] Bell, E., & Gollom, M. (2021, February 7). A Poilievre defeat could leave the Conservatives finding their way forward. CBC. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservatives-paul-alfonsi-pipe-1.5879093
[2] Stevenson, A. (2021, January 30). Could the Conservatives bench Erin O'Toole? The Logic. https://thelogic.com/politics-public-sector/conservative-leadership-erin-o-toole-potential-replacement-party-caucus/
[3] Hannah, T., & Cockburn, J. (2021, May 17). Long-shot Brampton Centre candidate aims to unseat Liberal Navdeep Bains. Toronto Star. https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2021/05/17/long-shot-brampton-centre-candidate-aims-to-unseat-liberal-navdeep-bains.html
[4] Strapoli, B. (2021, September 10). Here are the 49 candidates vying for the Conservative leadership. CBC. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-leadership-race-candidates-1.6131637
- The French parliamentary system, much like Canada's, has seen instances where a party leader lost their seat in an election, such as Robert Bourassa of Quebec in 1985.
- Pierre Poilievre, in his attempt to navigate the complexities of Canadian politics, may find himself in a position where he needs to consider policy-and-legislation and the effects of war-and-conflicts, as he did during his tenure as Conservative MP.
- If Pierre Poilievre were to find himself in the midst of a snowfall of political challenges, he might turn to the French parliamentary tradition of a fellow MP offering to sacrifice their seat for him, allowing him to stay in the House of Commons and maintain his visibility in general-news and crime-and-justice debates.
- In the realm of crime-and-justice, the sacrifice made by a fellow MP could potentially raise questions about quid pro quo, highlighting the fine line between political maneuvering and perceived bribery, as warned by Geneviève Tellier.
- As the Conservative Party leader, Pierre Poilievre will likely have to grapple with the potential backlash from his party and the Canadian public, as electoral defeats can have far-reaching consequences, shaping the landscape of policy-and-legislation for years to come.
