Surviving the Winter and Beyond: Ukraine's Urgent Weapons Needs
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi recently visited the USA, seeking support for his army's survival in the face of dwindling Western ammunition and weapons supplies. With the Russian offensive failing and stockpiles depleting, Ukraine may require new weapons and strategies to stay on the offensive and avoid a devastating winter.
Tensions surrounding this critical visit
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has left Ukraine's military in a precarious situation, with many voices urging a new approach and accompanying support. In contrast to the US military advocating a "hold and build" strategy, focusing on defense and supply infrastructure, the Ukrainians are pushing for an offensive drive (NYT).
These divergent views and strategies present a pressing challenge for Zelenskyi; one that could sway the tide of the war in favor of either nation.
Quantity vs. quality: Firing power and resources
The Russians have been relying upon their ample stockpiles of ammunition, firing approximately 16,000 to 20,000 artillery rounds daily (NYT). In contrast, Ukraine must prioritize resource conservation, with their soldiers utilizing only 4,000 to 8,000 rounds per day (NYT).
The disparity in firing power leaves Ukraine in a vulnerable position, necessitating an effective defense strategy to counteract Russian attacks and contingencies for re-equipping in the event of a new offensive.
Cutting off the Russians at their supply lines
According to Colonel Markus Reisner (ntv.de), consistent interruption or total disruption of Russian supply lines is the best strategy for achieving a lasting impact on the frontline. Threatening logistics hubs, command structures, and key junctions is crucial to hampering Russian efforts and forcing them into costly modifications.
Air Defense
With weak air defense capabilities since the outset, Ukraine needs fighter jets and robust air defense systems to safeguard its country against Russian attacks. F-16s are rumored to be forthcoming, while negotiations with Sweden for Gripen jet deliveries are ongoing.
Surface-to-Surface Missiles
To counter Russian forces within the immediate future, Western powers should provide Ukraine with medium-to-long-range surface-to-surface missile systems that can impact Russian command structures and logistics. Examples of such missiles include ATACMS (USA) and Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB).
Cruise Missiles
The Taurus medium-range cruise missile, offering resistance to electronic jamming attacks, is vital for targeted attacks on sensitive Russian logistics and junction points. Ukraine has previously requested the missiles from the German government, but the request remains unfulfilled. If provided, Taurus could theoretically destroy road and rail networks, weakening Russian supply lines significantly.
Drone Defense
Ukraine is overwhelmed by Russian first-person-view drones, which provide the Russian forces with real-time knowledge of enemy movements. To counteract these drones, Ukraine should utilize electronic warfare (EW) technology and resilient jamming systems to restrict their electromagnetic spectrum and communication capabilities.
Sustaining a defense, seeking victory
Both the US Congress and President Biden hold the power to provide Ukraine with the necessary weapons and resources. However, the prospect of adequate funding remains uncertain, with European support also questionable due to political and financial constraints.
Ukraine's urgent requirements to maintain its defensive position and prepare for a new offensive in the future will depend on securing vital weapons, such as new main battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and artillery.
While the list is long and progress uncertain, Ukraine must continue to prove its resilience and adapt its tactics to maintain a lasting advantage throughout the impending winter and beyond.
