What we need to know about the rise in murders in America

The Thrilling Uptick in Homicides Across the USA

Jeff Ascher

It's insane that a prominent sports league collects and shares data in this manner, but that's essentially how Americans should react to the dramatic surge in homicides since last year. Nationwide homicides rose by nearly 30% in 2020, with preliminary data suggesting a smaller increase in 2021. What's missing from the picture, though, is a nationwide data infrastructure that could explain why things are improving or worsening.

Understanding why homicides skyrocketed in 2020 and why they're dropping or staying flat at certain locations is, in the truest sense, a matter of life and death and requires faster, better data. The understanding of why homicides appear more frequently or rarely can help law enforcement make better decisions regarding police deployment, gun regulations, and social service provision. Instead, we receive anecdotes and informed opinions when it comes to explaining why homicide rates are increasing or decreasing.

While homicides nationwide increased, the same is true for places like Dallas and St. Louis. St. Louis, following an increase in law enforcement activities in both cities in 2020, saw a 13% and 25% drop, respectively, in 2021. Local officials and activists in St. Louis argue for a renewed focus on community efforts to address and combat the issue instead of relying on increased police work.

Both explanations are plausible, but neither has a clear, substantiated basis to back them up. The complex web of reasons why homicides in a city fluctuate from year to year has no straightforward explanations. Sometimes, homicides increase or decrease due to chance, with fatal shootings trending upwards or downwards arbitrarily. For instance, both Atlanta and Hartford, Connecticut, saw homicide increases, but the number of shooting victims declined in all cities compared to 2020.

Challenges in gaining a better understanding of homicide trends stem from the national crime reporting system, which is inaccurate and painfully slow. Local law enforcement agencies report crime statistics to their respective state authorities, which then forward the data to the FBI. The FBI collects and verifies the data and releases year-end data by September of the following year.

Even though 77% of homicides in 2020 were committed with firearms, the FBI does not explicitly require local law enforcement agencies to collect and report data on non-fatal shootings. These statistics are crucial to assessing the impact of police strategies, community interventions, and pure luck on violent crime trends. Some cities publish shooting statistics publicly, but the lack of a national standardized system for reporting shooting figures poses a significant problem. In most cities, gathering more detailed information about evolving homicide patterns is challenging.

Crime statistics are only released in September and are often too late to capture emerging trends, as the FBI started releasing quarterly crime estimates in 2020 to provide an initial glimpse into the 2020 homicide surge.

To deal with this issue in 2021, the FBI published quarterly crime projections, but only about a quarter of local law enforcement agencies consistently submit data to the FBI. The apparent reason for this is the switch of the FBI to the National Incident Reporting System (NIBRS) in 2021. While NIBRS seems to be the system we need to gather better data and better understand violent crime patterns, it unfortunately does not provide specific data on shootings.

Only 40% of law enforcement agencies that submitted data to the FBI in 2020 used NIBRS, and only a few agencies in California, Illinois, New York, and Pennsylvania submitted NIBRS data for 2020. It's unclear how many agencies reported data via NIBRS in 2021, but the FBI established a 60% participation rate threshold for quarterly crime projections, which hasn't been met in every quarter of 2021. Consequently, FBI quarterly data releases for 2021 contain a discouraging disclaimer: "Since participation levels fall below the 60-percent threshold, no national crime trend data will be available."

Available insights suggest that there is a significant gap between the number of institutions that will submit data in 2021 and those that did in previous years. Of about 16,000 local law enforcement agencies that submit crime data to the FBI annually, fewer than 10,000 submitted data through NIBRS in 2020, while more than 6,000 agencies still used the old system. Only around 1,500 local agencies switched from the old system to NIBRS in 2020. As a result, thousands of local agencies that previously submitted data to the FBI did not in 2021. This means that the FBI uses fewer data points for its crime projections at year-end, which could potentially reduce public trust in these estimates.

An effective solution for this data scarcity is increasing the adoption of 21st-century data collection systems among local law enforcement agencies. Many large departments collect shooting data, but only a few cities (such as Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Rochester, NY) publish near-real-time shooting data. Other agencies track shooting data internally or report aggregate shooting data that can both be made public.

Substantially more local law enforcement departments should adopt contemporary data collection systems to address some of the FBI's data collection gaps. Countless major departments track shootings, but only a few cities (such as Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and Rochester, NY) publish near-real-time shooting data. Other agencies track shooting data internally or report aggregate shooting data, which can both be made public.

Citizens, government analysts, and academic researchers could identify emerging trends, evaluate community programs, and compare shooting patterns in numerous US cities with the publication of detailed shooting data by dozens of cities in near-real-time. It would address numerous issues in contemporary FBI data reporting, such as inconsistent reporting, inaccuracies, and data latency.

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• Follow us on Twitter and Facebook Detailed crime data reporting by dozens of cities almost in real-time would help address some of the FBI's data collection inadequacies. Interested citizens, government analysts, and academic researchers could identify emerging trends, evaluate community programs, and compare shooting patterns in numerous US cities. Agencies that track shootings but don’t disclose such data will struggle to see trends early, assess their effectiveness in preventing violence, and optimize resource allocation.

While the number of homicides skyrocketed in 2020 with remarkable speed, preliminary data suggests a smaller increase in 2021. But it is still an enigma which way it will go, and upgraded data collection and reporting practices could be invaluable tools for identifying effective strategies and implementing proven methods.

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This text discusses escalating homicide rates in the USA, the insufficient national data framework that hampers understanding of homicide trends, and the varied perspectives on why murders are on the rise or dropping in certain cities. It also touches on the issues with gathering and interpreting crime data due to antiquated reporting systems.

Two sentences containing the term 'opinions' are:

• Local community leaders and activists in St. Louis advocate for a revitalized focus on community efforts to combat the issue rather than relying on increased police work.
• No concrete, definite data supports either explanation, as to why homicides are rising or falling in various cities.

Source:

Enrichment Data: The primary reason behind the deficiency of a comprehensive national data infrastructure to understand escalating homicide rates in the USA is due to several interconnected problems:

1. Lack of National Standards and Reporting Requirements:
2. There are no uniform national standards for collecting and reporting crime data, creating inconsistencies in how cities and states present their crime statistics. This makes it difficult to compare data across regions and develop a comprehensive understanding of national trends[1].
3. Outdated or Error-Prone Technologies:
4. Many police departments rely on outdated or error-prone technologies for collecting and analyzing crime data. These systems can lead to inaccuracies and delays in the reporting process, making it challenging to have current and reliable data[1].
5. Limited Analytical Capacities:
6. Police departments lack the analytical capabilities to effectively process and interpret the data they collect. This hinders their ability to create meaningful dashboards and reports that drive local strategies and inform resource allocation[1].
7. Reservations About Data Transparency:
8. There are concerns about data transparency, which can hamper data sharing and analysis. This reluctance can stem from various factors, including fear of public scrutiny or doubts about how data will be used[1].
9. Variability in Reporting Frequency and Quality:
10. While some states and cities are actively publishing detailed crime data, others lag behind. This inconsistency in reporting frequency and quality complicates the analysis of crime trends, making it harder to get a clear picture of national crime rates[2].
11. Public Perception and Trust Issues:
12. The public's perception of crime rates is influenced by preconceived notions and political affiliations rather than actual data. This disconnect between data and public opinion can make it challenging to effectively communicate crime trends[2].
13. Reporting Bias and Underreporting:
14. Crime reporting can be underrepresented or underreported in specific areas due to factors like lack of trust in the police, fear of retaliation, or cultural stigmas. Conversely, some areas might overreport crimes to demonstrate active law enforcement, which may distort the appearance of data[3].