Employment Statistics for November Predicted to Suggest Pre-Pandemic Recovery
Welcome to the Job Market
As we approach the end of the employment month, we'll delve into what to expect from November's employment statistics. While job growth remains on historically high levels, it's beginning to slow down, only shadowing the astonishing growth spikes seen at the pandemic's onset recovery stage.
In October, US employers created 150,000 jobs, driving the unemployment rate slightly higher to 3.9%. Despite a potentially similar situation in November, an extra boost could come from striking auto and film workers returning to the workforce (US Bureau of Labor Statistics).
Expert Predictions
Expectedly, economists forecast a job creation figure of 180,000 and an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.9%, according to Refinitiv-based data. Karin Kimbrough, LinkedIn's Chief Economist, remains optimistic, stating that while modest growth is anticipated, anything more substantial would be impressive.
Revisiting Strikes
If the November labor market stats align with predictions, growth rates will only resemble pre-pandemic levels. Prior to the outbreak, the decade between 2010 and 2019 boasted unmatched growth, with about 183,000 new jobs added each month.
However, economists estimated 180,000 new jobs in October, but the overall job count fell by 30,000. Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter's Chief Economist, believes some part of last month's weakness might have been illusory and simply due to the strikes.
Recently, the United Auto Workers (UAW) union staged an impressive strike against the big three automakers, Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, from mid-September to late October. The automobile and parts manufacturing industry lost 33,200 jobs in October, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics attributing the decline to strike activities.
Writer's Revision
With the October report showing a loss in automotive and parts manufacturing jobs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issued a November report assuaging concerns about a potential decline in the labor market. According to the BLS, over 16,000 striking SAG-AFTRA actors returned to work, resulting from an agreement reached between the Screen Actors Guild and Hollywood Studios in early November.
As a result, the November report suggests a potential bump in employment opportunities, particularly in the entertainment and media sectors. Moreover, it reinforces the previously discussed sentiment of an approaching return to pre-pandemic employment rates.
