Syria's Role in the Middle East Conflict: An Unstable Landscape
Currently, Syria finds itself at the heart of the Middle East conflict, with its borders near Israel experiencing recurrent skirmishes. This complex situation is explored in detail by Carsten Wieland, a Middle East expert, in the latest episode of "Wirtschaft Welt & Weit."
The Syrian conflict, which began in 2011 as a protest against the Assad regime, has evolved into a multifaceted battleground encompassing human rights, religion, geopolitics, and the economy. Over a dozen years after the Arab Spring, Bashar al-Assad remains in power, but the power dynamics have shifted significantly.
According to Wieland, the Iranian-backed Shiite Hezbollah militia is no longer fully under Syrian control. Hezbollah and Iran now exert a significant influence over Assad, posing a threat to Israel due to their proximity to the Golan. This growing tension between Iranian-backed militants and Israel has raised concerns about potential escalations, as underscored by Regine Schwab, a Syria expert at the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt.
Schwab is apprehensive about the escalation of conflicts in the region, citing a history of attacks and counter-attacks from various parties, including Israel and the USA. The presence of more than 900 US troops in Syria adds further complexity, with the USA conducting airstrikes against pro-Iranian militias. Any potential US casualties, according to Schwab, could quickly escalate the situation.
The influence of the Assad family in the current Middle East conflict is similarly complex. Despite facing international disapproval, Syria has been readmitted into the ranks of the Arab League after a six-month absence. However, it remains to be seen if Syria will fulfill the Arab League's conditions, as discussed in detail by Mary Abdelaziz-Ditzow, host of "Wirtschaft Welt & Weit," along with Carsten Wieland and Regine Schwab.
- The vulnerable position of Syria and the Assad regime following the December 2024 incidents, which precipitated the downfall of the Assad dynasty, has paved the way for various regional actors to compete for control.
- The emergence of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led government as a new force in Syria, with backing from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, aims to counterbalance Iranian influence in the region.
- Israel continua to engage in military operations in Syria, extending beyond the Golan buffer zone, targeting positions and forces aligned with the new Syrian administration.
- Iran's efforts to maintain influence in Syria through its proxy forces and strategic alliances have been instrumental in shaping the regional landscape. Iranian-backed militias like Hezbollah contribute to conflicts in the region against Israel and other actors.
- The Syrian conflict is intertwined with broader regional dynamics, characterized by the rivalry between Iran and its adversaries, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel. The involvement of regions like Türkiye adds complexity to the conflict, as each side pursues their strategic interests.
In conclusion, the current situation in Syria, and its implications for the broader Middle East conflict, is a complex and volatile landscape marked by shifting alliances, regional rivalries, and ongoing militant activity. The role of the Assad family within this landscape continues to evolve as well.
