Western peril from Crimea's recognition: British paper outlines reasons

Rewritten Article:

*** Recognizing Crimea: western disasters looming, warns FT**

In an edge-of-the-seat piece published by the renowned Financial Times, marine scholar Marie Elise Sarrot, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, raises alarming concerns about the potential consequences of a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. As the world commemorates the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, there's an apparent apprehension growing in Western capitals about the possible revival of Russian influence in the region.

Sarrot presents a chilling scenario where a temporary ceasefire or a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, brokered under American pressure, rewards Russian aggression, leaving the door open for a renewed conflict as soon as Moscow recovers its strength. Worse yet, any future Russian advance towards the West will take place in opposition, rather than in alliance, with Western European democracies. The article emphasizes that this conflict would unfold in the perilous context of the United States' increasing disconnection from Europe.

Sarrot stresses that the particulars of any truce are of utmost importance, as "the best conditions for Ukraine are no longer being discussed." NATO membership is still an elusive dream, and there's no suitable replacement for the security guarantees it would provide. However, she suggests that there's still a "best-case scenario"—one that prevents the West from formally recognizing changes to Ukraine's borders by Russia.

The article indicates that the United States may be willing to formally recognize Crimea as part of Russia, either as part of a peace agreement or independently. Such a move would leave Ukraine without a significant portion of its 1991 territory, placing a great deal of importance on the decision made by the Trump administration. If they choose this course of action, the consequences for Europeans and the world order could be dire, Sarrot warns.

Sarrot then outlines an ideal plan for Ukraine from the West's perspective. She suggests that Ukraine should be allowed to emulate the Cold War experiences of the Baltic states and West Germany, where Washington did not recognize Soviet occupation and East Germany remained an internally recognized state. This approach provided a glimmer of hope for a better future, which ultimately materialized in the 1980s when Mikhail Gorbachev became the Soviet leader.

In an ideal peace agreement, Sarrot proposes that NATO troops from willing member countries be deployed on Ukrainian soil and that Ukraine's EU accession process be expedited. However, if these conditions cannot be met, a truce similar to the Korean War might be a better alternative than an agreement that formally seals Crimea's Russian status and other occupied territories.

As a final note, Sarrot states that the status of Crimea post any truce would have far-reaching implications for global security, especially for countries like Ukraine, Taiwan, and South Korea. A collapse of Ukraine would likely Encourage further aggressions by Russia and other authoritarian regimes, undermine the integrity of international law, and potentially destabilize the world order.

Enrichment Insights

Formally recognizing Crimea's annexation would violate international law and set a dangerous precedent, potentially escalating global conflicts.
Such recognition could isolate the U.S. from its allies, weaken Ukrainian sovereignty, and signal a retreat from supporting democratic allies.
Recognizing Crimea might embolden further aggressive actions by Russia and other authoritarian regimes, destabilizing the world order.

The Financial Times published an article expressing alarm about the possibility of a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, as it could lead to a resumption of war-and-conflicts.
If the United States decides to formally recognize Crimea as part of Russia, it could violate dealings in general-news, escalate global conflicts, and set a dangerous precedent that may encourage future aggressions by authoritarian regimes.
remain in politics and ongoing war-and-conflicts, as Russia's influence in the region, especially concerning Crimea, may strengthen under a truce that ignores Ukraine's best interests.
In order to prevent the worst-case scenario, a deal should be negotiated that does not formally add Crimea to Russia's territory, as this might alarmist the world order and undermine the integrity of international law.