Western Nations and Turkey Resume Negotiations
In recent years, several European Union (EU) states, including Greece, Albania, North Macedonia, and Bulgaria, have engaged in intensified cooperation with Turkey to address regional security challenges and economic issues. This collaboration is particularly pronounced in the cases of Albania and North Macedonia, which have developed close political and infrastructure ties with Turkey, and Bulgaria, which maintains stable relations to manage regional security and economic concerns linked to Turkey's growing influence. The EU as a whole has also worked with Turkey through agreements like the 2016 EU-Turkey deal to manage migration and security threats.
The EU's approach towards Turkey is multifaceted, with Brussels showing signs of accommodating Ankara, despite criticisms regarding its democratic practices and President Erdogan. One way Europe could demonstrate goodwill is by easing the visa-issuance process, although this is unlikely. A well-executed modernization of the EU-Turkey Customs Union could benefit both parties, but this scenario is fraught with uncertainty.
Caution characterizes the EU's engagement with Turkey, a de facto contact ban in certain Western circles, and limited participation in events like the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, a high-profile event in Turkey. This cautious engagement is due to several uncertain assumptions and challenges that may still arise for Turkey, primarily due to its geographical position.
Europe may follow Washington's lead in fostering relations with Turkey, as missing out on potential business opportunities related to Syria and neighboring countries could be a major drawback. Brussels could fulfill its previous commitments by resuming regular high-level meetings with Ankara.
Turkey's strategic importance is significant, though underrecognized in Western policy discussions. As a G20 member with a population of 85 million and a relatively young demographic, Turkey's economy is deeply intertwined with the EU, fostering mutual dependency. Turkey's global influence could increase if conflicts in Ukraine, Palestine, and the wider Middle East are resolved, making Turkey increasingly vital to the West, especially to Europe.
Turkey's role in the trade of indispensable goods creates a two-way economic and security dynamic. Additionally, Turkey's 5 million-strong diaspora in Europe makes it a relevant global player. Honoring its NATO membership and strengthening its relationship with Washington are likely to remain Turkey's top priorities.
Despite the challenges, Turkey will likely navigate relationships within Europe more smoothly due to its substantial diaspora. However, tensions may still arise if fighting and tensions in Ukraine, Israel, Iran, or among major powers spiral out of control, potentially placing Turkey in an escalating political conflict with Israel or other parties.
European diplomacy increasingly shies away from traditional engagement, with some representatives limiting contact with diplomats from sanctioned countries like Russia. This trend is evident in the operations of the Maarif foundation, which operates Turkish language schools, and TRT International, a Turkish broadcaster.
The fifth iteration of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum brought together presidents, ministers, and experts, including the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine. This event underscores the importance of continued dialogue and cooperation between Turkey and the EU, despite the complexities and uncertainties that exist in their relationship.
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