Week 3 NFL Predictions: Notable Underdogs to Bet On, Including the Jets and Browns
NFL Week 3 Preview: Key Factors and Trends
The NFL season is in full swing, and as we approach Week 3, several teams and trends are worth noting. Here's a rundown of some key statistics and insights that could shape the upcoming games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers, playing at home, have historically struggled to cover spreads, with a record of 167-180-14 (45.8%) in all-time home ATS games. Additionally, they will have one less day to prepare and recover from their Monday Night Football game against the Falcons.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints' defense has been impressive, ranking in the top 10 for third-down defense (34% conversion rate allowed) and pass rush (34% pressure on dropbacks). New addition Justin Reid is expected to bolster their defensive line. However, their offense has faced pressure on 28% of dropbacks, leading to two interceptions.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers are off to a strong start, boasting a 2-0 record in the season. The spread for their game against the Browns is set at 8.5 points, reflecting the market's confidence in Green Bay.
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle's offense has struggled with third-down conversions, converting only 6-of-14, and their red zone touchdown ranking is 23rd (50%). On the bright side, rookie Kenneth Walker III is a key player for their attempt to control the clock.
New York Jets
The Jets, who are one of the Week 3 ATS underdogs who are winless on the season, could potentially exploit potentially inflated odds due to the market not wanting to back them as much. Tyrod Taylor demonstrated competence when he entered the game for the Jets, completing 7 of 11 passes for 56 yards and a touchdown. However, starting quarterback Justin Fields has been ruled out due to a concussion.
Other Notable Trends
- Since 2010, betting on winless NFL teams that are +3.5 or higher has a winning percentage of 64.2%.
- Betting models and analytics advise against overvaluing early-week blowouts.
- Seattle's offense is a work in progress under coordinator Klint Kubiak.
- The Cleveland Browns are currently 0-2 in the season.
- The Saints' pass rush creates pressure on 34% of dropbacks.
- The Packers' win over Detroit and Washington has influenced the market to favor them.
- Spencer Rattler has a QB rating of 90.7 through Week 2.
Remember
These statistics and trends provide valuable context, but they should not be the sole determinant of your betting decisions. Always consider other factors, such as team dynamics, injuries, and the specific matchup at hand.
Stay tuned for more updates as the NFL season unfolds!
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