Wars are concluded through methods such as diplomatic agreements, surrender, peace treaties, or military victories.
Life in the Hall of Mirrors: Modern Wars and Their Elusive End
Stroll through the Hall of Mirrors, greeted by Lionel Royer's masterpiece of Vercingetorix's surrender to Julius Caesar - yet, wars don't always end this explicitly. After the First World War, the Hall could serve as a reflection of our contemporary world, where many wars lack a clear conclusion.
Glance at the Global Peace Index, a ranking of countries reflecting their "peace level" crafted by a think tank. Over the past decade, wars have mostly reduced in intensity – fewer skirmishes, less violence, fewer casualties. However, this doesn't equate to an end. The conflict can smolder, waiting to reignite.
Ukraine offers a chilling case study. Following Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and up to the 2022 invasion, the Donbass war tapered off, settling into a somber tranquility.
Dive deeper in our reserved articles: What are the main armed conflicts in the world?
In this video series, aptly named "Understand in three minutes", produced by the Vertical Videos service at Le Monde, we explore the question: why do more wars refuse to end? For a comprehensive understanding, check out our decryption below.
This intriguing piece is part of Le Monde's "Understand in three minutes" series, which delivers insights into crucial events in a concise format, making difficult subjects accessible to all.
Laurent Selinder and Félix Pommier (motion design)
Subscribe | Contribute
Reuse this content
—
The Shadows of War:
Why do so many wars lingering in our era remain unresolved? The answer lies in the intricate interplay of modern warfare and geopolitical dynamics.
Unbalanced Struggles: Asymmetrical Warfare
The prevalence of asymmetrical warfare, in which opposing forces have starkly dissimilar military capabilities and resort to unconventional strategies, plays a vital role. Smaller or less equipped forces employ unconventional tactics, such as guerrilla warfare, terrorism, and sabotage, to compensate for their weaknesses and prolong the conflict without a clear resolution.
The Malicious Hand of Violent Non-State Actors: Proxy Wars
Modern conflicts involve more and more violent non-state actors (VNSAs) such as insurgent groups, terrorists, and paramilitary units that either act independently or as proxies for states desiring to maintain deniability. These actors use readily available technology, like commercial drones, to carry out asymmetric attacks with minimal direct conventional engagements, complicated peace negotiations, and comprehensive resolutions.
Proxy warfare, where states engage indirectly through non-state actors, magnifies these complexities. It allows powerful countries to pursue strategic aims without escalating into full-scale military conflicts, thereby fostering continued tension and periodic violence instead of lasting peace.
Changing Wars: The Evolving Technological Landscape
Technological breakthroughs, particularly the rise of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or drones, have reshaped warfare by enabling persistent surveillance and pinpoint precision strikes at relatively low cost and risk. This technology empowers smaller forces to execute effective operations against larger militaries, maintaining a constant yet containable level of conflict. Furthermore, autonomous drones and AI-assisted systems render attacks unpredictable and difficult to counter, discouraging complete battlefield resolutions.
Political and Diplomatic Impediments
Plausible deniability and covert operations are additional reasons conflicts fail to end. States strive to avoid open wars that could invite international censure or escalation, often favoring covert support of proxy forces and clandestine missions to preserve strategic ambiguity and evade clear attribution. These approaches both complicate peace negotiations and impede final conflict resolutions.
In summary, modern conflicts often persist because:
- Asymmetrical warfare perpetuates prolonged, low-intensity struggle rather than decisive battles.
- Non-state actors and proxies perpetuate conflict while enabling states to avoid direct confrontation.
- Technological advancements, such as drones and AI, permit sustained, hard-to-counter attacks.
- Political strategies emphasizing plausible deniability and covert operations hinder clear accountability and resolution.
Together, these factors contribute to conflicts decreasing in intensity but persisting unresolved, indicating a transition from traditional warfare to complex, multifaceted struggles that weave military, technological, and political threads.
- The prevalence of unresolved conflicts in the modern era can be attributed to the intricate interplay between warfare strategies, geopolitical dynamics, and evolving technologies.
- The use of asymmetrical warfare tactics by weaker forces, proxy wars involving non-state actors, and technological advancements like drones contribute to ongoing conflicts by allowing smaller forces to sustain a constant, containable level of conflict, making clear resolutions elusive.
