Ukrainian Conflict and Mobilization: A President's Struggle
President Volodymyr Zelensky has acknowledged that the mobilization of new troops is a significant challenge for Ukraine - financially, politically, and logistically. Speaking at a press conference in Kiev, he admitted the topic is sensitive, highlighting the importance of determining who among the current soldiers deserve rest and leave.
With an army plea for 450,000 additional soldiers, the cost soars to around 500 billion hryvnia (12.2 billion euros). Concurrently, Ukrainian forces have effectively regained control over the western Black Sea, thwarting Russia's goals in the region.
Throughout 2023, Russia failed to achieve any of its military objectives in Ukraine. Despite this, Russian President Vladimir Putin believes the 'West's strategic defeat' in Ukraine is not yet a reality. The Russian President attributes the war's success to the "strengthening of our armed forces and arms production."
Ukrainian Confidence in Support from America and the EU
Despite the faltering Western aid, President Zelensky remains confident in its continuance. He expresses belief that both the USA and the EU will remain steadfast in their support for Ukraine in the future. The EU has also attempted to secure a 50 billion euro financial package to aid Ukraine, however, the initiative is currently stalled by Hungary.
Despite continued negotiations, Ukraine has ruled out joining NATO without incorporating the Russian-occupied territories. "We have not received such a proposal from any of our partners. I find it difficult to picture what it would look like," said Zelensky.
Russia's Strained War Efforts
Russian President Vladimir Putin's unsuccessful invasion has cost his country dearly in terms of military casualties, equipment losses, and territorial gains. Russia has reported losses of over 700,000 soldiers, more than half of whom are missing, and a staggering 20,171 military vehicles and equipment.
Ukraine, on the other hand, has suffered comparatively fewer losses - estimated at 400,000 soldiers and 7,708 military vehicles and equipment. Seemingly, Russia has yet to find a decisive victory in its two-year long invasion.
Additional Insights
- Territorial Control: Although Russia has gained significant portions of Ukrainian territory, its overall control is not clear. As of February 12, 2025, Russia has captured approximately 151 square miles, while Ukraine has taken 2 square miles in Russia's Kursk Oblast.
- Civilian Displacement: Over 10.2 million Ukrainians have been displaced due to the conflict, accounting for 23% of the Ukrainian population. In comparison, 800,000 Russian citizens have left due to economic or political reasons, representing 0.6% of Russia's population.
Ukrainian Government Efforts
President Zelensky signed "Law No. 3633-IX" to address manpower shortages. Changes included lowering the conscription age, expanding recruitment centers, and toughening penalties for evading military service. However, former Adviser to the President of Ukraine, Lieutenant Colonel Alexey Arestovich, criticized the initiative, arguing it was introduced too late and lacked effective implementation.
Western Military Support
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte emphasized the need for increased military assistance to Ukraine to counteract Russian aggression. However, the effectiveness of Western containment efforts is at risk due to shifting U.S. policies under Trump, potentially leading to a fracture in Western unity.
Potential NATO Membership
Ukraine's aspirations for NATO membership are ongoing, but complicated by the conflict and Russia's aggressive actions. NATO allies are considering independent security measures, including a European force that could operate without U.S. support.
Future Prospects
The conflict's future remains uncertain, influenced by factors such as the U.S.'s foreign policy and Western unity. If the USA signals willingness to accept Russian territorial control in exchange for peace, Ukraine may be forced to accept an unfavorable outcome. If Western cooperation remains steadfast, Ukraine may continue to resist aggression effectively.
