Vietnam's cashew dominance faces rising costs and shifting global supply risks
Viet Nam remains the world's top cashew processor, handling 80 per cent of global kernel exports. Last year, the country imported over 3.12 million tonnes of raw cashews, costing more than US$4.67 billion. This year, it aims to export 800,000 tonnes of processed kernels worth $5 billion—but faces growing challenges. The global raw cashew market is becoming more unpredictable, pushing up costs for Vietnamese importers. While supply itself is stable—with this year's output expected to match last year's 5 million tonnes—the real risk lies in shifting market sentiment rather than shortages.
Around 70 per cent of newly planted cashew areas now come from Africa and Cambodia. Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria, and Tanzania lead production in Africa, while Cambodia has rapidly expanded since 2020. This shift adds pressure on Viet Nam's import-dependent industry. At home, ageing plantations in key regions like Dong Nai Province struggle with weather damage, cutting yields. To secure supply, the government is pushing for better farming techniques and improved cashew varieties. Officials also stress the need for better planning of cultivation zones and stronger support for farmers through agricultural extension services. Reducing reliance on imports remains a priority. Developing domestic raw material sources is seen as essential for long-term stability in the industry.
Viet Nam's cashew sector must balance high export targets with rising import costs and unstable global markets. Success will depend on improving domestic production and managing risks from ageing plantations. The government's role in supporting farmers and expanding local cultivation will be crucial in meeting this year's goals.
