Vienna's Decision Led to:

Election Results: SPÖ Tops Vienna Vote, Coalition Talks Ahead

The SPÖ snatched the top spot in the Vienna election on Sunday, with a preliminary final result revealing they've notched 39.5 percent of the votes. The FPÖ, on the other hand, saw a significant surge, grabbing 20.8 percent. The Greens held steady with 14.2 percent. With a close race between NEOS and ÖVP for fourth place, the final outcome may be decided by Monday's postal vote count.

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On election night, NEOS and ÖVP were neck and neck, sitting at 9.8 and 9.7 percent respectively. Although Monday's postal votes might slightly alter the result, the winner is clear for now.

According to the Foresight Institute's projection, which considers postal vote estimates and assumes a 99.8% turnout, the SPÖ stands at 39.5 percent, the FPÖ at 20.4 percent, and the Greens at 14.5 percent. The fight for fourth place remains intense between NEOS (9.9 percent) and ÖVP (9.7 percent), with a margin of error of +/-0.3 percentage points. It's all down to the postal votes due to be counted on Monday! Most of the postal votes had already been counted on Sunday.

Big Loss for the SPÖ, Bigger for the ÖVP

The SPÖ suffered a slight loss of 2.2 percentage points compared to the 2020 result (41.6 percent). The ÖVP, however, saw a dramatic fall of 10.7 percentage points – the biggest drop ever in the capital.

The FPÖ saw a record gain of 13.2 points and almost tripled their vote share since the Ibiza scandal (7.1 percent), while the Greens barely budged, losing a mere 0.3 points from the 14.8 percent in 2020. NEOS nudged up 2.5 points, from 7.5 percent in 2020.

SPÖ's Coaltion Options: Narrowing Down the Dance Card

The SPÖ (based on the Foresight projection) has 43 seats and can continue the coalition with its current partner NEOS, push for a collaboration with the ÖVP or go green with the Greens. The latter two options present potential majorities, each with their unique policies and challenges.

But, a partnership with the FPÖ, despite their impressive gain, is off-limits for the SPÖ.

Failed Bids: KPÖ and Strache

Both the KPÖ and Team Strache have failed to clear the five percent hurdle, garnering 4.0 and 1.1 percent respectively.

Potential Coalition Combinations:

SPÖ-NEOS: A continuation of the "red-pink" coalition, emphasizing innovation, education, and climate adaptation. The collaboration offers stability and policy continuity. However, a limited majority might necessitate fiscal policy compromises.
SPÖ-Greens: A focus on urban greening, cycling infrastructure, and accelerated climate neutrality targets. The stronger Greens mandate could steer the SPÖ towards more ambitious environmental policies. Yet, potential friction may arise over housing and transportation projects, where the SPÖ prioritizes affordability over sustainability.
SPÖ-ÖVP: The ÖVP advocates for security, education, and economic policies; however, the party's single-digit performance (9.7–11.5%) and ideological differences in housing and social welfare make this coalition politically risky. Nevertheless, the ÖVP's urban relevance continues to erode, complicating its coalition bargaining power. The SPÖ might avoid aligning with a party linked to federal-level controversies.

The SPÖ's decision will hinge on striking a balance between progressive priorities and pragmatic governance needs as they dance with potential partners. As Vienna's political landscape evolves, we wait with bated breath for the next moves!

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