Viennan Vote Trend: SPÖ leads with 37%, followed by FPÖ at 23%

Let's talk Vienna's City Council election on April 27 - here's the lowdown 🔊

With just a week to go, the final poll by Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft for oe24 (845 respondents from April 17 to 20) has revealed some interesting insights 📊

The SPÖ is in a bit of a pickle. They're looking at a fall from grace, with their numbers dropping to 37% - two points lower than two weeks ago. Michael Ludwig, the SPÖ's frontman, is still set to secure the top spot, but his team's goal of inflating their numbers to around the 40% mark seems like a pipe dream. The SPÖ has been top dog for a while now, so a slide like this isn't all that surprising. If things don't improve, the SPÖ might find themselves in a bit of a tight spot, unable to govern alone with the NEOS, but with the Greens and ÖVP, they could still form a majority.

On the flip side, the FPÖ could see a significant surge, with predictions suggesting they'll pull in around 23%. Dominik Nepp might even manage to triple his 2017 result.

The Greens are eyeing their 2020 result of 14.8%, currently sitting pretty at 13%. They've managed to gain one point since the last poll two weeks ago.

The ÖVP could nab a little more than they did in the last poll (+1). However, they've taken a massive hit from 20% in 2020, down to 11%.

All things considered, Michael Ludwig could team up with both the Greens and ÖVP. The duo would secure 54 mandates with the Greens and 52 with the ÖVP, out of 100 total seats.

The NEOS, with Bettina Emmerling at the helm, are currently polling at 9% - a 1.5 percentage point increase from 2020. However, even with the NEOS on board, the SPÖ still won't have enough seats to govern alone, so they'll need to find another partner or work with either the ÖVP or the Greens.

The FPÖ is out of the coalition running. Both Ludwig and the Greens have stated that they won't entertain a coalition with the FPÖ, and Nepp doesn't have the backing of the ÖVP.

Worth noting: These figures are based on the latest polling and expert analysis, with a potential range of 39–40% for the SPÖ, around 21% for the FPÖ, ~12% for the Greens, ~11% for the ÖVP, and ~10% for the NEOS. Keep in mind that low turnout (potentially around 60%) may disproportionately benefit the SPÖ due to stronger mobilization among older voters. Coalition dynamics are another factor to consider, with the SPÖ potentially partnering with the Greens, ÖVP, or NEOS, though a red-blue (SPÖ-FPÖ) coalition remains off the table. The campaign has seen security and local governance dominating discussions, with limited polarization between parties. 🗳️🔜

The SPÖ, despite a predicted drop in profit to around 37% in Vienna's City Council election, could still form a majority with the Greens and ÖVP if they struggle to gain more seats on their own.
The FPÖ, according to recent projections, is expected to have a significant increase in profits, potentially pulling in around 23%, which might help Dominik Nepp triple his 2017 results.
The latest polling and expert analysis suggest that Michael Ludwig could team up with the Greens and ÖVP, securing 54 mandates with the Greens and 52 with the ÖVP, out of 100 total seats.
With Bettina Emmerling at the helm, the NEOS could secure 9% of the votes in the upcoming election, but the SPÖ might still need another partner or work with either the Greens or the ÖVP to govern, as their numbers alone won't be enough.