ÖVP's Tumbling Vote Share After Kurz's Departure
Vienna-based ÖVP, persistently pursuing insolvency proceedings, now involves Mahrer in its roster.
The ÖVP's dismal run in the Vienna city council election on Sunday was just another disheartening blow. Preliminary final results suggest the People's Party endured a whopping 10.7 percentage point loss and plunged to 9.7%, slipping into the fifth spot. This slump is even more significant when compared to their 2015 performance. In 2020, the regional party, spearheaded by Gernot Blümel, a close ally of Kurz, managed 20.4% of votes and placed second behind the SPÖ.
This negative trend seems unstoppable. Since Sebastian Kurz's exit from political limelight, the election results have generally shown a drop for the ÖVP.
A Year of Repeated Election Setbacks
Last year saw one disappointment after another: In 2024, the EU election witnessed a 10.0 percentage point drop (a total of 24.5%), the National Council election recorded a 11.2 percentage point loss (26.3%), the Vorarlberg state election dipped by 5.2 percentage points (38.3%), and the Styria state election sank by 9.2 percentage points (26.8%). The only slight positive was the 2023 Carinthia state election, where there was an increase of 1.6 percentage points, amounting to 17.0% of votes.
The ÖVP Was On Top Few Years Back
In the past, the ÖVP looked completely different: Under Sebastian Kurz's leadership and a revamped image, the party enjoyed a boost nearly everywhere. However, after Kurz's resignation due to corruption allegations and under the leadership of Karl Nehammer, the party couldn't rebound. The Vienna election was the second state election under the new party head and chancellor, Christian Stock. By January, there was already a 8.6 percentage point slide in the Burgenland state election.
Analysis of ÖVP's Electoral Decline
The cause of the ÖVP's electoral decline since Kurz's departure can be attributed to multiple factors:
1. Political leadership void: The lack of a strong, charismatic leader after Kurz's departure has been a significant factor impacting voter confidence.
2. Failed coalition negotiations: The ÖVP's difficulties in forming stable alliances, such as the collapsed talks with SPÖ and NEOS, created a perception of ineffectiveness.
3. Policy missteps: The ÖVP's conservative fiscal policies, including tax cuts and loopholes, alienated reform-minded voters, particularly in urban areas, diminishing their appeal.
4. External crises: The turbulent political climate, caused by the post-pandemic situation, the Ukraine war, and inflation, exacerbated the demand for stability, which the ÖVP, amid leadership changes, could not meet.
The combination of these factors has left the traditional ÖVP base eroded and weakened the party's coalition-building credibility, speeding up its electoral decline.
- The ÖVP's dismal performance in the Vienna city council election, recording a 10.7 percentage point loss, indicates a ongoing downward trend in elections since Sebastian Kurz's departure.
- Over the past year, the ÖVP has experienced repeated election setbacks, with drops in the EU election, National Council election, Vorarlberg state election, and Styria state election.
- In contrast to the current state of affairs, the ÖVP was on top a few years back, enjoying widespread support under Sebastian Kurz's leadership and a revamped image.
- Analyses of the ÖVP's electoral decline suggest several factors contributing to its slump: a political leadership void, failed coalition negotiations, policy missteps, and external crises like the post-pandemic situation, the Ukraine war, and inflation.
- The combination of these factors has led to a eroded traditional ÖVP base and weakened the party's coalition-building credibility, speeding up its electoral decline.
