USAF Struggles with Financial Constraints for Developing Next-Generation Fighters, Tankers, and Drone Wingmen Simultaneously
Taking a Frank Approach: The Next-Gen Air Domination
John A. Tirpak's discussion at the Airlift/Tanker Association symposium spilled some candid truths about the Air Force's financial predicament. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall admitted that the service may have to get "resourceful" due to its inability to fund all the Next-Gen Air Dominance fighter (NGAD), the Next-Gen Aerial refueling System tanker (NGAS), and a second increment of Collaborative Combat Aircraft drones (CCA) as initially envisioned.
During his speech in Grapevine, Texas, Kendall highlighted the integration of these three potential new-design platforms, all of which are part of an Agile Combat Employment context. They are intertwined "both operationally and from an affordability perspective," and the Air Force is currently assessing the optimal combination of capabilities to pursue at varying investment levels.
Regarding the NGAD fighter, Kendall expressed a desire for it to cost less than an F-35. However, with the F-35 variant costing about $82 million, he's aiming for a radical price cut while maintaining or increasing capability. The planned contract award for a winner has been delayed from fall 2024 to 2025 at the earliest.
To review the NGAD requirements and adapt to the evolving threat and new unmanned technologies, a blue-ribbon panel consisting of former Air Force Chiefs of Staff, a former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and leading civilian experts was assembled. They'll deliver their recommendations in December.
Ensuring enough resources for a superior Air Force is a top concern for Kendall. "We have to get somewhat creative to adapt our existing force to meet the threat," he stated, adding that while the Air Force has become adept at "tricks" to squeeze more capability out of the same resources, it has come at the expense of dealing with the pacing challenge of China.
In the wake of China's investment in precision missiles that can disable air bases and shoot down key assets, the need for a stealthy NGAS tanker is more pressing than ever. The modernization of mobility forces will only become more critical in the future. The Air Force has made a decent start over the last three years but, at this point, has not initiated a Next-Generation Air Lift platform (NGAL) replacement for the C-5, C-17, and C-130, due to affordability concerns.
Not only are the Air Force's marquee programs not all financially feasible within expected budgets, but there are other pressing needs, such as modernizing two of the three legs of the nation's nuclear deterrent. Kendall expressed concern over the China threat, specifically the timeline presented by Chinese president Xi Jinping for the People's Liberation Army to seize Taiwan, even with American intervention.
Overall, modernization bills for both Air Force legs of the nuclear triad are coming due in the next few years. Robust airbase defense, attacking adversaries' long-range kill chains, and a substantial increase in investments are essential for the success of the Air Force and the joint force.
- The Air Force Secretary, Frank Kendall, expressed a desire for the Next-Gen Air Dominance fighter (NGAD) to cost less than an F-35, aiming for a radical price cut while maintaining or increasing capability.
- To ensure a robust airbase defense, the Air Force is considering the development of a stealthy Next-Gen Aerial Refueling System (NGAS) tanker, given the growing threat of precision missiles from potential adversaries.
- Apart from the Next-Gen Air Dominance programs, the Air Force also faces the need to modernize two of the three legs of the nation's nuclear deterrent, which are coming due in the next few years.
- The Space Force, another crucial branch of the military, has been discussing the integration of drones, aircraft, and missiles into their operations, given the evolving threat landscape in space.
