"US think tank posits Turkey's ascension as a dominant regional force"

Turkey, with its robust military and growing economy, is poised to become a major player in global politics, a potential not demonstrated by many other regional powers. Despite modest growth, Turkey's unique geopolitical position and diplomatic agility have placed it at the centre of a series of strategic openings across multiple fronts, including the South Caucasus, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East.

The South Caucasus and the Zangezur Corridor

Turkey played a crucial role in Azerbaijan's victory over Armenia in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, marking a significant shift in the balance of power on Turkey's eastern flank. The opening of the Zangezur Corridor further challenges Iran's influence by depriving it of transit fees and geopolitical leverage over Azerbaijan.

Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East Engagement

In Syria, Turkey is actively involved in the reconstruction process and maintains a military presence, viewing the country as a buffer and a platform for power projection in the Middle East. Turkey is also increasing political and economic engagements in Iraq, including with the Kurdish government and central Baghdad, and advancing infrastructure alternatives like the Development Road to enhance regional connectivity independent of Iran’s east-west axis.

Strategic Ambiguity and Diplomatic Balance

Turkey's foreign policy skillfully maintains strategic ambiguity, allowing it to engage with multiple powers and act as a diplomatic bridge. It pursues dialogue and cooperation with Russia (including energy trade and diplomatic talks), the U.S., NATO allies, Ukraine, Iran, and EU countries, positioning itself as an indispensable regional and international partner without fully committing to any bloc.

Adaptive Relations with Russia

Despite tensions, Turkey maintains a complex and transactional relationship with Russia, cooperating in areas like trade and infrastructure even as Russia is engaged in Ukraine. This relationship helps Turkey expand its influence in geopolitical arenas traditionally dominated by great powers, such as the Arctic, showcasing its diplomatic agility and ambition to be seen as a global actor.

Vision of International Leadership

Under President Erdogan, Turkey seeks to elevate its international status beyond regional power, aiming to represent the broader Muslim world and challenge existing international power structures. This includes efforts in Africa and aspirations to broaden global leadership beyond the traditional powers in the UN Security Council.

However, the main question for Turkey is whether it can overcome domestic constraints to sustain this momentum on the global stage. The optimistic analysis, titled "Turkey's Time to Rise" by Geopolitical Futures, argues that Turkey has a historic opportunity to become a major power due to its increasing military capacity, strategic position, and foreign policy moves.

Turkey's strategic maneuvers are not limited to the Middle East. It has improved relations with major Arab states, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In Libya, Turkey has enhanced its influence to project strength westward in the Mediterranean. Turkey has also positioned itself as an interlocutor between Russia and Ukraine, while enhancing trade, connectivity, and security ties with countries like Georgia, Romania, and Bulgaria.

Moreover, Turkey's efforts to forge closer relationships with European partners are highlighted, including coordinating joint efforts with Poland to stabilize Ukraine and explore postwar security frameworks. The report positions Turkey alongside Japan and Poland as one of three significant powers forecast to emerge over the coming decades.

The report also identifies Turkey as "the biggest winner in the Israel-Iran conflict," citing the collapse of Syria's Assad regime following the weakening of Hezbollah and Iranian influence. Despite these victories, uncertainties about Turkey's ability to fully capitalize on these opportunities are acknowledged due to its domestic problems.

In a significant move, President Erdogan announced that Turkey will host the 2026 NATO summit in Ankara. This decision underscores Turkey's growing influence within the alliance and its commitment to playing a key role in global politics. Putin also called Russia-Ukraine negotiations 'important' after Istanbul talks, highlighting Turkey's role as a mediator in regional conflicts.

In conclusion, Turkey's geopolitical maneuvers are underpinned by its military strength, growing economy, strategic location, and diplomatic agility. As major powers face constraints or decline, including Russia, the United States, Iran, and Israel, Turkey is capitalizing on these geopolitical openings to enhance its influence and emerge as a major power. Whether Turkey can overcome its domestic challenges remains to be seen, but its strategic position and ambitious foreign policy suggest a bright future on the global stage.

Turkey's Eastern flank experienced a significant shift in the balance of power due to its crucial role in Azerbaijan's victory in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and the opening of the Zangezur Corridor further challenges Iran's influence.
Turkey maintains a military presence in Syria, viewing the country as a buffer zone and a platform for power projection in the Middle East, while increasing political and economic engagements in Iraq.
Turkey's foreign policy skillfully maintains strategic ambiguity, engaging with multiple powers such as Russia, the US, NATO allies, Ukraine, Iran, EU countries, and positioning itself as an indispensable regional and international partner.
Despite tension, Turkey maintains a complex and transactional relationship with Russia, cooperating in areas like trade and infrastructure, expanding its influence in geopolitical arenas traditionally dominated by great powers.
Under President Erdogan, Turkey seeks to elevate its international status beyond regional power, aiming to represent the broader Muslim world and challenge existing international power structures, including efforts in Africa.
Turkey's hostship of the 2026 NATO summit in Ankara underscores its growing influence within the alliance and its commitment to playing a key role in global politics.
Putin called Russia-Ukraine negotiations 'important' after Istanbul talks, highlighting Turkey's role as a mediator in regional conflicts.