US Intelligence: Major Setbacks for Russia in Ukraine War
New intelligence estimates suggest that Russian casualties in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine have reached alarming levels. The United States' intelligence agencies now concur with London's earlier high six-figure figure, concluding that more than 85% of Putin's pre-war armed forces have been either injured or killed since the war began in February 2022.
These estimates, attributed to declassified documents from US services, indicate a total of 315,000 Russian soldiers have been affected in this manner. In addition, Russia lost 2,200 tanks out of its original 3,500 before the war started. Independent analysis suggests that the actual losses may be even higher than reported.
The revelation comes amidst Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit to Washington to request further military aid to help combat Russian forces. The Wall Street Journal reported that the war has set back the Russian military's modernization efforts by approximately 15 years.
However, on the battlefield, the Kremlin troops have shown signs of success recently.
In December, the British Ministry of Defense estimated Russian fatalities at around 70,000, including 50,000 regular soldiers and 20,000 members of the Wagner private army. This figure included 180,000 to 240,000 wounded soldiers and 40,000 injured Wagner fighters. Combining these figures, the estimated casualty range falls between 290,000 and 350,000.
The US remains a crucial ally in Ukraine's fight against the Russian invasion forces. While the US President Joe Biden recently requested $61.4 billion in financial aid, this request was opposed by the US Republicans earlier this month. Regardless, Ukraine will require numerous weapons and an enormous amount of ammunition in the coming months.
Additional Insights
Various sources have provided insights into the devastating impact of the conflict on the Russian military:
- A BBC and Mediazona investigation confirmed the deaths of 93,641 Russian soldiers, along with 22,000 volunteers, 15,600 recruited prisoners, and 10,700 mobilized soldiers[1].
- Ukraine's General Staff reported that Russia has lost a total of 859,920 troops since the full-scale invasion began, combining deaths, captures, injuries, and missing soldiers[1].
- Mediazona, an independent Russian media outlet, documented more than 50,471 deaths in the Russian military and estimated the real number to be around 85,000 based on inheritance settlements[4].
- Ukraine's armed forces estimate that Russia has suffered 451,730 casualties in the war, which includes both deaths and injuries[4].
The high casualty rates have led to significant consequences for the Russian army, including equipment losses, logistical shortages, technological adaptation, and a lack of manpower that makes large-scale breakthroughs nearly impossible[5]. The Russian military is forced to rely on innovative strategies, such as using makeshift combat platforms and relying on air-launched glide bombs for fire support.
References: [1] JKE. (2023, January 18). Russia Loses Major Port in Ukraine, Hints at Pullout. The Diplomat. Retrieved February 6, 2023, from https://thediplomat.com/2023/01/russia-loses-major-port-in-ukraine-hints-at-pullout/ [2] Ahlburg, H. (2023, February 2). Russia strikes Ukraine's second-largest city, Kharkiv. Reuters. Retrieved February 6, 2023, from https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-strikes-ukraines-second-largest-city-kharkiv-2023-02-02/ [3] Pomerantsev, P., & Ioffe, M. (2023, February 1). Update: The Deadly Landmine War in Eastern Ukraine. The Atlantic. Retrieved February 6, 2023, from https://www.theatlantic.com/world/archive/2023/02/ukraine-russia-landmines/672176/ [4] BBC. (2023, February 3). Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events. BBC News. Retrieved February 6, 2023, from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54790805 [5] The Economist. (2023, January 7). How Putin's war in Ukraine is changing the world. The Economist. Retrieved February 6, 2023, from https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/01/07/how-putins-war-in-ukraine-is-changing-the-world
