US grain stockpiles surge as exports lag behind rising reserves
US grain stockpiles have grown significantly over the past quarter, with corn, soybeans and wheat all showing year-on-year increases. Market trends also reveal shifting export demand and wider price movements, as both commodity futures and broader financial indices reflect changing economic conditions.
The latest USDA data highlights rising reserves alongside adjustments in planted acreage forecasts for key crops like corn and soybeans, pointing to evolving supply dynamics in global agriculture.
At the end of November, US corn stocks reached 13.262 billion bushels (bb), a 10% rise compared to the same period in 2023. Wheat reserves also climbed, hitting 1.675 bb—6% higher than the previous quarter's figure. Soybean stocks followed a similar trend, growing by 6% year-on-year to 3.29 bb by the close of Q1.
Export activity, however, lagged behind previous years. By the end of February, total corn sales had improved to 2.56 bb, up from 1.75 bb in November. Yet soybean exports trailed by 18% compared to the prior marketing year, while wheat sales were 14% lower. Market indicators showed mixed signals. The May-July soybean futures spread covered 36% of full commercial carry at the end of Q2, up from 25% in Q1. Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) strengthened by 2.11 (2.1%) over the quarter, contrasting with the S&P 500's decline of 501 points (7.3%). The USDA has revised its forecasts for 2024/25, raising corn production and export projections while increasing global soybean ending stocks. Factors influencing these adjustments include harvest delays, rising wheat prices, and strong demand from regions like Asia. Declining global corn reserves and record projections for corn and wheat have also shaped expectations for 2026 plantings.
US grain inventories remain well above last year's levels, despite softer export performance in soybeans and wheat. The USDA's updated forecasts suggest higher corn output and global soybean stocks, driven by shifting market conditions. These trends will likely influence planting decisions and trade flows in the coming seasons.
