Updated UFC 223 Odds: Ferguson Favorites Over Holloway in Anticipated Fight
Uh-oh, Ferguson vs Nurmagomedov is off, once again!
But don't fret, featherweight champ Max Holloway has swooped in to face Khabib at 155 pounds on short notice!
It's straight up cruel that we found out on April Fool's Day that the Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Tony Ferguson fight, yep, you guessed it, the fourth time this fight has been booked, and the fourth time it's been canned, is off again. Poor pairing, fate just ain't on your side, pal!
Whoops, in came Max Holloway, the brave (or crazy?) soul who voluntarily stepped in a week before the fight to face off against the most feared man at 155. Last time Holloway tasted defeat? Back in 2013, when the young buck was outclassed by Conor McGregor, the current lightweight champ. To snatch the interim lightweight title from Khabib? Now that'd be a show!
But hey, let's be real for a moment, shall we?
First things first, Holloway must conquer the undefeated beast. The featherweight champ opened at a pitiful +365, giving him a mere 20% chance of winning. Got more guts than brains, that's our Blessed one right there!
Khabib Nurmagomedov (-505) vs Max Holloway (+365)
Win or lose, Max Holloway is a trooper. Tough as nails after being forced to withdraw from a title defense last month due to a bum ankle, and now challenging an opponent who should be fighting at welterweight. You gotta admire the guy's attitude, even if you're a skeptic. In fact, at +365, backing Holloway could fetch a straight-up ridiculous payday.
Holloway's height and reach advantage are nullified at 155, as Khabib stands just as tall. The Dagestani even has an inch of reach advantage. When it comes to weight, we can bet Nurmagomedov will be the heavier fighter. Physiology, no dice for Holloway.
Another ace up his sleeve, Holloway's takedown defense is impressive (83%). But against Khabib, pfft, it won't count for much. The Russian brings down anyone who stands in his way, and Edson Barboza, Michael Johnson, and Rafael dos Anjos could all bear witness to that. A matter of if Khabib takes it to the ground, it's when instead.
Holloway's speed and movement might give him some edge at 145, but against Khabib? Not so much. The Russian would welcome an aggressive approach, every kick a takedown opportunity, every over-committed strike an opening for a counter and close the distance.
All in all, I'd love to be proven wrong, but it's hard to see a realistic winning path for Holloway. Facing a hefty fighter like Khabib on six days' notice, fresh off an injury and switching weight classes? Not the smartest move, buddy. Even if Holloway had taken a full training camp for this fight, he'd still be a long shot against the Russian. So tread lightly, and maybe hold off until the odds for "Khabib inside the distance" are released. If you can't wait, pick Khabib Nurmagomedomedov winning outright at -505, and secure that easy money.
Pick: Khabib Nurmagomedomedov (-505)
Khabib Nurmagomedov faces Max Holloway on short notice, a fight that offers an underdog story with Holloway having a 20% chance of winning according to the payout odds. Holloway's height and reach advantage are nullified at 155, as Khabib stands just as tall and has an inch of reach advantage. Takedown defense has been impressive for Holloway, but it might not matter much against Khabib, who is known for bringing down his opponents. The fight between these mixed-martial-arts athletes could be a nail-biting spectacle, but the odds favor Khabib Nurmagomedomedov at -505.
