Upcoming tight presidential election in Poland
In a tight race, Polish presidential candidates Rafal Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki are neck-and-neck, according to the latest opinion polls. Trzaskowski, backed by the ruling centrists, and political novice Nawrocki, supported by the opposition Law and Justice party, stand at 46.3% each in the voting intentions.
A nail-biting finish looms for the candidates as they compete to win over voters from various political standpoints in the final stretch of the campaign. On Sunday, Trzaskowski addressed a crowd in Warsaw, promising to be a unifying president, ready to engage with everyone. Simultaneously, Nawrocki held a rival demonstration with tens of thousands of supporters in attendance.
A victory for Trzaskowski, 53, would significantly boost Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who regained power in the 2023 parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, the outcome will be closely watched beyond Europe due to the potential implications for Poland's support for neighboring Ukraine.
Nawrocki, 42, has expressed opposition to NATO membership for Kyiv and has been critical of the benefits given to one million Ukrainian refugees living in Poland. A win for Nawrocki could cast doubt on Poland's stance towards Ukraine.
In the first round of the election on May 18, Trzaskowski narrowly clinched the lead with 31% against Nawrocki's 30%. With far-right candidates receiving a combined 21.15%, Nawrocki has a larger pool of potential votes to draw upon, according to analysts.
Soon after the first round, Nawrocki agreed to terms set by far-right leader Slawomir Mentzen, who laid out conditions for a potential endorsement. As a gesture of alliance, Nawrocki signed an eight-point statement promising to veto legislation that would raise taxes, limit free speech, or ratify Ukraine's potential NATO membership. However, the campaign was rocked by the Onet media outlet's report suggesting that Nawrocki was involved in facilitating sex work in the past. Nawrocki has since denied the allegations and threatened to sue Onet.
Trzaskowski, an avowed Europhile, aims to maintain a balance in his campaign to charm right-leaning voters without alienating the left. Similar to Nawrocki, Trzaskowski met with Mentzen to discuss issues but declined to sign the statement. The two have since been spotted chatting over pints in Mentzen's pub.
The Polish presidency is largely ceremonial but holds crucial veto power. Despite Prime Minister Tusk's manifesto including judicial reforms, changes to the abortion law, and the introduction of civil unions, the job has previously been stymied by the existing president, Andrzej Duda. In case of a Trzaskowski victory, he has pledged to back measures allowing abortion up to the 12th week of pregnancy and supports LGBTQ rights and civil unions.
A major trend in the election is young voters showing dissatisfaction with the duopoly of Civic Platform and Law and Justice, who have ruled Poland for the past 20 years. Analyst Ewelina Nowakowska notes, "Young people are breaking away from this duopoly." She highlights a growing preference among the youth to seek new political parties and new faces.
In the international general-news arena, the outcome of the Polish presidential election, particularly a victory for Karol Nawrocki, could potentially impact Poland's stance towards Ukraine, given his opposition to NATO membership for Kyiv. The election, however, also serves as a battleground for justice issues, with Trzaskowski, aiming to support abortion rights and LGBTQ rights, and Nawrocki, backed by the political party that has been critical of benefits for Ukrainian refugees, presenting starkly different views.
