Upcoming Local Elections 2025: Litmus Test for Party Bosses in the Public Arenas

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Get ready for a wild ride, folks! This week's English local elections are going to be a wild card show, with some unexpected twists and turns. Here's the lowdown on what's going down and why you should keep an eye on your favorite political gladiators.

First off, we've got the first big test of Sir Keir Starmer's premiership as Labour Party leader, alongside Kemi Badenoch's tenure as head of the Conservative Party. But hold on tight, because there are several firsts coming your way! We've got the first by-election of this parliament in Labour-heavy Runcorn, the maiden elections for the mayoralty of Hull and East Yorkshire, and Lincolnshire, and our first glimpse at whether Reform's soaring poll numbers can translate into actual seats.

There's over 1,600 council seats, six mayoralties, and the Labour-held Runcorn and Helsby seat post-Amesbury's punchy night out up for grabs. With plenty at stake for both leaders, Nigel Farage is rubbing his hands together, ready to dance like the puppet master. He's barely got any council seats to defend, and he's got hundreds in his sights, eyeing up the chance to make Reform a bona fide governing force.

Sir Keir is sweating it out, with the Runcorn by-election a nerve-wracking test for the Labour Party. They're loath to lose a seat in the northwest of England to a charging Reform Party, especially with the general disillusionment among voters. For the Conservatives, the pressure's evident, with 16 of the 23 councils they currently control up for grabs. Back in 2021, they were flying high, riding the Johnson-COVID vaccine wave. But times have changed, and they're set for a bumpy ride this week.

As for Labour, they're looking at a night that's far from their best. They're coming off a steady drop in the polls following the autumn budget, dipping below 30% last November. Since then, their support's been slipping away, with their average polling around 23%. They're been hemorrhaging council seats in council by-elections since the 2024 national poll, winning only 57% of the by-elections held since then, compared to 87% in the same period post-2017. The biggest race on their plate will be the Runcorn by-election, where Reform's got their beady eyes on taking the once-safe Labour seat.

Reform might be gunning for the Conservative Party, but they know too well the threat they pose to Labour. According to Labour insiders, Reform's taken second place to Labour in 89 constituencies in the 2024 General Election. They're all too aware of the Farage effect, as Reform taps into voter disillusionment.

But don't count the Tories out just yet. They've got 18 out of the 23 councils up for grabs, with majorities in all but five. They could even see the Lib Dems overtake them for control of local government, which would be a massive blow. The only ray of hope they have is just that—a faint glimmer—with a chance to win the Cambridge and Peterborough mayoral race, where a former Peterborough MP's looking to unseat Labour.

Wanna get a feel for the mood on the ground? Check out the latest episode of the Electoral Dysfunction podcast, where we ran a focus group in Doncaster to snap the political landscape in a city about to choose its council and mayor. People are disillusioned with the main parties, looking for real change. You might be wondering if Reform's Roger Rabbit act will attract voters. Well, we'll see next week whether the Reform momentum in the polls translates into real progress on the ground, transforming them from a protest movement into a genuine electoral force capable of posing a challenge to the two main parties across the country.

Intrigued? Hungry for more political tea leaves? Then stay tuned, because this set of elections is a proverbial canary in the coalmine for British politics. Will we see the death knell for the two-party system, with third-party victories and records set for seats gained? Stay glued to your seats, and we'll find out soon enough!

The forthcoming English local elections are set to be a significant test for Sir Keir Starmer's leadership of the Labour Party, coinciding with Kemi Badenoch's tenure as Conservative Party leader.
A key focus will be on the Runcorn by-election, which could potentially steal a Labour seat from the northwest of England and deal a nerve-wracking blow to the party.
Reform Party, with its increasing popularity, is likely to aim for both Labour and Conservative seats in the upcoming elections, using voter disillusionment as a tool to gain momentum.
The general-news landscape will closely watch the poll outcomes, particularly in Runcorn, Hull, East Yorkshire, and Lincolnshire, as these regions hold their maiden mayoral elections and the political landscape experiences shifts, potentially forecasting the future of politics in the UK.