Thuringia's Election: A Battle of Political Powers
Gearing up for the Thuringia state election, we find ourselves in a nail-biting race between various political parties, with the final outcome remains far from guaranteed. With coalition possibilities still up in the air, the poll results offer a tantalizing glimpse of what could be.
According to Forsa's poll, sponsored by RTL/ntv, the AfD emerges as the frontrunner with a commanding 30% vote share, leaving the CDU trailing at 22%. The Alliance 90/The Greens (BSW) aren't far behind, mustering 17%, followed by the Left (led by Minister President Bodo Ramelow) at 14% and the SPD at a dismal 7%. It seems the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) would miss out on securing a seat in the state parliament. An unconventional alliance between the CDU, BSW, and SPD appears to be potentially the only feasible majority option, assuming the poll results hold true.
Similarly, in the ZDF-Politbarometer survey, published pre-dawn Friday, it suggests a majority government in Thuringia can't be formed without either the AfD or BSW. The AfD is predicted to nab 29% of the votes, while the CDU and BSW would receive 23% each, and the Left hovers near a disappointing 13%, flirting dangerously close to the 5% threshold required to secure a seat in the state parliament.
Mainstream parties express little enthusiasm in partnering with the AfD, branded as extreme by Thuringia's domestic intelligence agency, or the Left, due to an incompatibility resolution barring the CDU from forming a coalition with them.
With temperatures soaring above 30 degrees Celsius during intense campaign periods and occasional fiery debates among parties marking the election's final stretch, the polls mirror but a mere snapshot of public opinion. Parties resort to courting support from top politicians of federal parties and popular figures from other states during closing rallies.
Confirming the polls, the ZDF-Politbarometer corroborates the difficulty in forming a majority government without either the AfD or BSW involvement. Compared to the German federal election, the coalition possibilities in Thuringia can be inferred as follows:
- The AfD, having gained a significant increase in their vote share (38.6%) in the state, could play a crucial yet challenging role in any coalition, given their extreme right-wing stance.
- CDU/CSU, while they fared better than the AfD in eight states, their influence in Thuringia would likely be somewhat diminished. Still, they could be a crucial player in forming a coalition if they find appropriate partners.
- The BSW failed to clear the 5% threshold nationally, meaning they would not enter the Bundestag, although their performance in Thuringia wasn't detailed. Given their national results, it seems they're unlikely to be a significant factor in Thuringian coalition talks.
- Die Linke performed strongly nationally, taking the lead in Berlin, but their Thuringia results remain undefined. They could potentially be part of a left-leaning coalition if they have substantial support in the state.
- The SPD suffered significant losses nationally and likely have diminished influence in Thuringia's coalition negotiations.
With these trends in mind, possible coalitions in Thuringia could involve the CDU/CSU as the primary party, possibly teaming up with Die Linke or other smaller parties to secure a majority. However, the AfD's strong presence and extreme right-wing stance make it unlikely they would be part of any mainstream coalition, although they may hold considerable power as a significant opposition force.
A peculiar incident unfolded just before election day involving BSW founder Sahra Wagenknecht, who was doused with red paint in Erfurt during a speech. Despite the interruption, Wagenknecht resumed her address unfazed as security forces apprehended the suspect.
BSW's potential role in Thuringia becomes more significant if they can establish themselves in this newly formed state. Wagenknecht has already expressed her intentions, stating, "I sincerely hope that after the election day, there will indeed be an opportunity for constructive cooperation. We would embrace such an opportunity. And we will also reach out to the CDU."
With polling day fast approaching, it's time to witness which political coalition will take command of Thuringia, shaping the state's political landscape for years to come.
