Election Uncertainty in Thuringia Persists
As the Thuringia state election approaches, recent polls reveal a tight race among political parties, leaving the final outcome uncertain. A masterful coalition is still up in the air, the polls suggest.
According to a poll by Forsa, commissioned by RTL/ntv, the AfD allegedly leads the state with 30%, followed closely by the CDU at 22%, the Alliance 90/The Greens (BSW) at 17%, the Left (led by Minister President Bodo Ramelow) at 14%, and the SPD at a dismal 7%. Both the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) fall short of securing a seat in the state parliament.
An uneasy majority could potentially be achieved by an unusual partnership of the CDU, BSW, and SPD. This unorthodox alliance, although controversial, seems to be the only feasible majority option, as per the aforementioned polls.
Similarly, a ZDF-Politbarometer, published in the wee hours of Friday morning, suggests that a majority government in Thuringia cannot be formed without the AfD or BSW. According to this survey, the AfD would seize 29% of the votes, the CDU and BSW would garner 23% each, while the Left would reach a dismal 13%. The SPD teeters precariously close to the 5% threshold required to secure a seat. Once again, both the Greens and FDP would fail to secure a seat, as per this poll.
Mainstream parties express minimal enthusiasm in forming a coalition with the AfD, considered extreme by Thuringia's domestic intelligence agency. The CDU is also barred from forming a coalition with the Left based on a compatibility resolution.
Polls are merely a snapshot of public opinion at a particular moment and should not be misconstrued as election predictions. Soaring temperatures, with readings surpassing 30 degrees Celsius during intense campaign periods, and occasional fiery debates among parties precede the election's final stretch. Parties court support from top politicians of federal parties and popular figures from other states during closing rallies.
An incident of peculiar nature took place just before election day when BSW founder Sahra Wagenknecht was attacked with red paint in Erfurt. Wagenknecht valiantly continued her speech after a brief interruption. Reports indicate that a suspect was apprehended and whisked away in handcuffs by security forces.
If a power-sharing deal occurs, the BSW, in its newly-established state, could hold a pivotal role - Wagenknecht has already outlined her conditions. In a recent interview, she expressed openness to negotiating, stating, "I sincerely hope that after election day, there will indeed be an opportunity for constructive cooperation. We would embrace such an opportunity. And we will also reach out to the CDU."
The ZDF polybarometer corroborates the difficulty in forming a majority government in Thuringia without involvement from either the AfD or BSW. According to this survey, the AfD is expected to capture 29% of the votes, the CDU and BSW would each receive 23%, while the Left would inch towards a disappointing 13%.
