Upcoming Election 2025: Experts Warn Elevated Stakes May Counteract Voter Exhaustion
Rewritten Article:
For Bella Arsenault, one term summarizes her sentiments towards the approaching federal election: weariness.
"It's disheartening to witness the influence of the American news and elections on our election," the Ottawa resident and Dalhousie University student shared with Capital Current. "Everything seems to revolve around the States, and that's irritating and frustrating."
She harbors other issues with the political climate - dismal voter turnout in February's Ontario election, the ordeal of organizing her mail-in vote, and the media's spotlight on the candidates.
Yet, she's "totally" voting in the federal election on April 28.
Her commitment to vote might be part of a broader trend before the federal election, as per an expert and voter advocate.
When an election follows another campaign, such as the snap federal election called shortly after Ontario's on Feb. 27, turnout in the latter election can supposedly "significantly" plummet, according to a 2017 European Journal of Political Economy study.
However, Samantha Reusch of Apathy is Boring, a non-partisan group dedicated to encouraging Canadian youth to vote, remains optimistic.
Reusch believes that many voters who abstained from participating in Ontario's provincial election will show up at federal polls - though she acknowledges it's challenging to predict with precision.
Turnout in the provincial election reached its second-lowest mark in Ontario's history at 45.4 per cent, as per Elections Ontario. In the "current situation" - an unmatched trade war with the U.S. and threats from Donald Trump to annex Canada - "people are wonderfully engaged around some of the substantial election questions," Reusch said. "My hope is that this helps individuals realize the incredible significance of our democracy."
There are "competing forces" at play, according to Ottawa-based political theorist and commentator David Moscrop, a contributing columnist for the Washington Post and author of the 2019 book Too Dumb for Democracy? Why We Make Poor Political Decisions and How We Can Make Better Ones.
Moscrop pointed to the Liberal leadership race, the U.S. presidential election, recent by-elections, and other political contests that might be tiring voters out.
"You've been inundated with all this, and it's a lot," Moscrop said. "But this is a unique election for most people."
Moscrop suggests that the urgency of some of the federal ballot questions - Trump threats to annex Canada and U.S. tariffs on imported Canadian goods - could counterbalance the pressures of voting fatigue.
The unusual intensity of the race could help alleviate fatigue, Moscrop stated.
The Liberal party has made a surprising comeback in the polls after Justin Trudeau announced his resignation in early January and Trump took office later that month. Former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney, who also spent several years with the international investment firm Brookfield, managed to rally voter support to the Liberals after suspending the consumer carbon tax and holding tariff talks with Trump.
Meanwhile, Trump's threats to Canadian sovereignty have triggered a widespread "Elbows Up!" unity movement, disrupting political polarization.
With two weeks left in the race and the debates to take place, the Liberals are "heavily favored" to secure a majority, according to CBC's poll tracker - an extraordinary contrast from the Conservatives' dominance in the polls during Trudeau's tenure.
"People might be motivated to cast their votes despite weariness, even eager to vote," Moscrop said. "The stakes are high, and the race is close."
Additional Information:
- Elections Canada reported record 7.3 million people participated in advance polls, surging by 25% from the 5.8 million in the 2021 federal election. This rise indicates a strong dedication from voters to have an impact on the outcomes.
- Despite concerns about election fatigue, the election's critical issues, including the economy and responses to U.S. policies, seem to be inspiring voters. The high advance turnout signals that Canadians view this election as crucial.
- The influence of the U.S. policy decisions (such as tariff threats) and the necessity of a strong economic mandate are driving factors for many voters, leading to higher engagement and participation. These elements contribute to increased turnout rates.
All in all, the merging of record advance voting numbers and the perceived significance of the election hints at turnout being significantly higher than in previous elections. However, the final turnout on election day remains uncertain.
- Bella Arsenault expresses disappointment over the influence of American news and elections on Canada's election, finding it disheartening and frustrating.
- The approaching federal election has instilled weariness in Bella, but she remains committed to voting.
- Experts suggest that turnout in subsequent elections can significantly decrease, as seen in the 2017 European Journal of Political Economy study.
- However, voter advocate Samantha Reusch of Apathy is Boring remains optimistic, expecting increased voter participation due to the substantial election questions and current political climate.
- The unmatched trade war with the U.S. and Trump's threats to annex Canada have prompted widespread engagement among voters, according to Reusch.
- Political theorist David Moscrop suggests that competing forces, including voter fatigue, are present, but the urgency of some federal ballot questions may counterbalance this.
- The Liberal party's comeback, driven by Mark Carney's management and the suspension of the consumer carbon tax, has rallied voter support.
- The high advance voting turnout, driven by critical issues such as the economy and responses to U.S. policies, suggests that this election is seen as crucial and could lead to significantly higher turnout compared to previous elections.
